Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Guardians vs Tigers Analysis – July 09, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

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Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians at Comerica Park on July 9, 2024, in the second game of their series. The Guardians, with a stellar 56-33 record, are having a great season and are favorites with a moneyline of -140, translating to a 56% implied win probability. Meanwhile, the Tigers, struggling at 43-48, are slight underdogs with a +120 moneyline and a 44% implied win probability.

Pitching matchups see Detroit’s Kenta Maeda, a right-hander ranked #143 by advanced-stat Power Rankings, go against Cleveland’s Ben Lively. Maeda’s season has been rough with a 2-5 record and a 6.71 ERA, though his 4.82 xFIP suggests some unluckiness. Lively, despite an 8-4 record and a 3.14 ERA, has a 4.16 xFIP indicating he might regress. Both pitchers are projected to pitch 5.3 innings, with Maeda allowing 2.6 earned runs and Lively 2.8.

Detroit’s offense has been among the worst in MLB, ranking 26th overall, 24th in batting average, 21st in home runs, and 27th in stolen bases. In contrast, Cleveland’s offense ranks 12th overall, with notable rankings of 12th in batting average, 10th in home runs, and 9th in stolen bases. The Tigers’ bullpen is average, ranked 15th, while the Guardians boast the 2nd-best bullpen.

Recent performances highlight the Tigers’ Colt Keith, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .370 with a 1.211 OPS, 3 home runs, and 5 RBIs in 7 games. For the Guardians, Angel Martinez has excelled, batting .462 with a 1.282 OPS in his last 5 games.

The game total is set at 8.5 runs, underscoring an average scoring expectation. With Detroit’s struggling offense and Maeda’s below-average pitching, the Guardians look poised to capitalize, especially given their strong bullpen and average-to-good offensive ranks.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Ben Lively’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (60.3 compared to 54.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Andres Gimenez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+205/-275)
  Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 75% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Kenta Maeda – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Over his last 3 outings, Kenta Maeda has produced a big jump in his fastball velocity: from 89.7 mph over the entire season to 90.8 mph lately.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Wenceel Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Wenceel Perez’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 87.8-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 82.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Zach McKinstry hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+5.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 52 of their last 87 games (+13.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)