Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
(-120/+100)+115
It’s the finale of a three-game interleague series at Comerica Park on July 14, 2024, as the Detroit Tigers host the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Tigers, currently sporting a 46-50 record, are having a below-average season, while the Dodgers, boasting a strong 56-40 record, are in great form. Yesterday’s game saw the Tigers pull off a surprising 11-9 win, defying the odds with an implied win probability of just 48%.
Detroit will send Beau Brieske to the mound. Brieske, making his first start of the season after 18 relief appearances, has been solid out of the bullpen with a 3.52 ERA and a 2.84 FIP, indicating some bad luck and potential for better performance. He’s currently ranked as the #108 best starting pitcher in MLB, reflective of his average standing among peers. However, Brieske’s high flyball rate coupled with the Dodgers’ league-best power could pose a challenge.
On the other side, Ryan Yarbrough gets the nod for the Dodgers. Despite a respectable 3.66 ERA, Yarbrough’s 5.46 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate thus far. The projections indicate Yarbrough is one of the worst pitchers in the league right now, and his tendency to allow hard contact might play into the hands of a Tigers lineup that has shown some pop, ranking 17th in home runs this season.
Offensively, the contrast between these teams is stark. The Tigers rank 24th in offense, with Riley Greene being their standout performer, hitting .271 with 17 homers and an .867 OPS. Meanwhile, the Dodgers feature the #1 ranked offense led by Shohei Ohtani, who boasts a .314 average, 29 homers, and a stellar 1.036 OPS.
Betting lines show the Dodgers as -140 favorites with an implied win probability of 56%. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Detroit a 47% chance of winning, suggesting this might be closer than the odds indicate. Expect potential fireworks with an over/under set at 9.5 runs, reflecting both teams’ offensive capabilities.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Miguel Rojas’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 87.3-mph mark last season has dropped to 84.9-mph.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Will Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Will Smith hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 91st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Andy Ibanez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Andy Ibanez has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .285 mark is considerably higher than his .213 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+115)The 5th-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Detroit Tigers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 20 away games (+2.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-180/+140)Shohei Ohtani has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)