Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: D-Backs vs White Sox Analysis – 6/25/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Chicago White Sox

As the Arizona Diamondbacks visit Guaranteed Rate Field on June 25, 2025, they face a struggling Chicago White Sox team currently mired in a dismal season with a record of 25-55. The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, are riding a wave of success with a 41-38 record, positioning themselves as a competitive force in the league.

In their last matchup, the Diamondbacks delivered a strong performance, securing a convincing win over the White Sox, which underscores their current momentum. The Diamondbacks are projected to start Zac Gallen, who ranks 78th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating his above-average capabilities. Gallen projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, which is an impressive mark. However, he does have a concerning projection of 4.8 hits and 2.3 walks, suggesting potential vulnerabilities that the White Sox may look to exploit.

The White Sox will counter with Sean Burke, who ranks a lowly 280th among starting pitchers. Despite projecting to pitch 5.1 innings and allow an average of 2.8 earned runs, his strikeout rate of 3.9 is particularly troubling. The Diamondbacks’ hitters have been significantly more productive, with their best player recently boasting a remarkable 1.549 OPS over the last week, highlighted by 4 home runs and 9 RBIs. In comparison, the White Sox’s best hitter has been decent, posting a solid 0.829 OPS but pales in comparison to his counterpart.

With a game total set at a lofty 9.0 runs, betting on the Diamondbacks seems prudent, especially given their strong implied team total of 4.81 runs. In contrast, the White Sox’s implied total of 4.19 runs reflects their struggles this season. As the series progresses, the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their current form and continue to build on their recent success against the White Sox.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  Zac Gallen has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.60 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.21 — a 1.39 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under Total Bases
  Alek Thomas’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 91.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80.3-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.309 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .338 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Hitters such as Miguel Vargas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zac Gallen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+15.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+165/-215)
  Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.20 Units / 34% ROI)