Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: D-Backs vs White Sox Analysis – 6/25/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago White Sox

On June 25, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their interleague series. The White Sox are struggling, sitting at 25-55 this season, and are coming off a loss against the Diamondbacks, who won 4-1 on June 24. Conversely, the Diamondbacks have been performing well, currently holding a record of 41-38.

Chicago’s Sean Burke is set to take the mound, boasting a Win/Loss record of 3-7 and an average ERA of 4.50. However, he has struggled with giving up runs and walks, projecting to allow 2.9 earned runs and 2.2 walks today, which is concerning given Arizona’s potent offense. The Diamondbacks rank 2nd in MLB for offensive performance, highlighted by their impressive 114 home runs this year.

Arizona’s Zac Gallen, with a Win/Loss record of 5-8 and a higher ERA of 5.60, is also looking to rebound after a rough outing where he allowed 7 earned runs in his last start. The good news for Gallen is that he faces a White Sox offense that ranks 30th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent scoring.

While Burke’s low strikeout rate might not be a significant concern against a Diamondbacks lineup that strikes out infrequently, his high flyball percentage could play into the hands of Arizona’s power hitters. The projections suggest that Gallen may have the advantage in this matchup, despite his recent struggles.

With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, the White Sox are currently underdogs with a moneyline of +130, while the Diamondbacks are favored at -150. As the teams take the field, the White Sox will need a strong performance from Burke to turn their season around, while the Diamondbacks will look to capitalize on their favorable matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Zac Gallen has been unlucky this year, putting up a 5.60 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.21 — a 1.39 deviation.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Alek Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Alek Thomas has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph dropping to 84.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order today (.315 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .337 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Sean Burke’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm grades out in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Hitters such as Miguel Vargas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zac Gallen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games (+8.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+15.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.70 Units / 24% ROI)