Check the Rankings and Game Forecast: Blue Jays vs Yankees Analysis – 8/4/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, sitting comfortably at 66-46, are enjoying a strong season and currently hold a significant advantage in the American League East. In stark contrast, the Toronto Blue Jays find themselves struggling at 51-60, marking a below-average year. These two teams face off in what could be a crucial matchup given their standings, especially after the Yankees triumphed over the Blue Jays by a score of 8-3 on August 3, 2024.

Gerrit Cole is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, despite a tough outing in his last start where he allowed 6 earned runs over 6 innings. With a 5.40 ERA this season, Cole’s xFIP of 4.30 suggests he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. He faces a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 27th in the league in home runs, which should bode well for him as he tends to generate a lot of fly balls.

On the other side, Toronto will send out Yariel Rodriguez, who has struggled with his command, evidenced by a 13.6% walk rate. His last outing was abbreviated, lasting just 1 inning while allowing 3 earned runs and walking 4 batters. The Yankees, with the 1st best offense in MLB, are well-equipped to exploit Rodriguez’s weaknesses, especially since they lead the league in drawing walks.

According to the projections, the Yankees are expected to score around 5.76 runs, a testament to their offensive prowess. With the Yankees’ strong start and the Blue Jays’ ongoing struggles, this matchup favors the Yankees heavily as they look to extend their winning streak and solidify their position in the playoff race.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Yariel Rodriguez – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yariel Rodriguez has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -12.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Daulton Varsho may have an edge against every reliever for the game’s entirety, since the bullpen of the New York Yankees has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Toronto’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in MLB: #26 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Gerrit Cole’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (54.6% vs. 47% last year) ought to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  In terms of his batting average, DJ LeMahieu has been unlucky this year. His .182 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 63 games (+20.60 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 42 games (+22.05 Units / 48% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+430/-680)
  Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 19 games (+11.90 Units / 63% ROI)