Los Angeles Angels
Kansas City Royals
(-110/-110)-240
On August 19, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium in what marks the first game of their series. The Royals, currently sitting at 69-55, are enjoying a solid season and are in the mix for a playoff spot, while the Angels, with a record of 53-71, have struggled significantly.
In their last outing, the Royals secured a convincing 8-1 victory over the Cincinnati Reds, showcasing their offensive prowess. Meanwhile, the Angels fell to the Atlanta Braves, losing 3-1, highlighting their ongoing challenges. The Royals will send Seth Lugo to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 13-7 record and a solid 3.04 ERA, although his peripheral stats suggest he may be due for a regression. Lugo’s last start was rough, as he allowed 7 earned runs in just 4 innings, but his overall performance this year remains above average.
Carson Fulmer will take the hill for the Angels, bringing a 0-3 record and a higher ERA of 4.22. Fulmer has also struggled in his last start, giving up 5 earned runs in only 3 innings. His high walk rate of 10.6% could be a potential issue against a Royals offense that ranks 4th in the league for fewest walks drawn.
Despite the Royals being favored with a moneyline of -235, projections suggest they might have a win probability of 58%, which is higher than what the betting market indicates. With a projected team total of 5.10 runs, the Royals’ offense, ranked 12th overall, should capitalize on Fulmer’s struggles, while the Angels’ offense, ranked 25th, may find it tough against Lugo.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Carson Fulmer – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)Carson Fulmer has had some very good luck with his strikeouts this year, putting up an 8.57 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.65 — a 0.93 K/9 disparity.Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Niko Kavadas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Kansas City’s #3-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Niko Kavadas, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Taylor Ward has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Seth Lugo’s 91.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph decline from last year’s 92.8-mph figure.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Michael Massey – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)In the last week’s worth of games, Michael Massey’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 21.3% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games at home (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+205)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 away games (+4.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+11.85 Units / 41% ROI)