Check the Injuries Update for Rockies vs Dodgers – 9/22/2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

As the MLB season winds down, the Los Angeles Dodgers (92-63) continue their dominant run and will host the Colorado Rockies (60-95) on September 22, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. This National League West matchup features two teams on opposite ends of the performance spectrum. The Dodgers, having clinched their division, are gearing up for a deep postseason run, while the Rockies are merely playing out the string in a forgettable season.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has been exceptional this season with a 2.63 ERA and a 6-2 record over 16 starts. Ranked 9th among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Yamamoto’s ability to strike out batters (28.5 K%) should play well against a Rockies lineup that has the 2nd most strikeouts in the league. Despite his ERA being lower than his xERA of 3.40, Yamamoto’s projected 6.1 innings and 7.8 strikeouts suggest another strong outing is likely.

The Rockies counter with Antonio Senzatela, who has struggled in his limited action this year, posting a 6.00 ERA. His expected ERA of 11.50 indicates a particularly challenging season. Facing a potent Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd overall and 3rd in home runs, Senzatela’s high walk rate (14.3 BB%) could spell trouble against a patient Dodgers lineup that ranks 3rd in walks.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Dodgers a 78% chance to win, underscoring their status as heavy favorites. With a projected 5.87 runs for Los Angeles against the Rockies’ 3.23, bettors should consider the Dodgers’ potent offense and Yamamoto’s pitching prowess as key factors in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Antonio Senzatela in the 11th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Michael Toglia has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2219 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2152 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Freddie Freeman will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 68 games (+16.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Moneyline (+305)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 games (+6.54 Units / 25% ROI)
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-170)
  Mookie Betts has hit the RBIs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+13.85 Units / 48% ROI)