Check the Injuries Update for Phillies vs Marlins – 9/7/2024

Philadelphia Phillies

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Miami Marlins

As the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Miami Marlins on September 7, 2024, both teams come into this National League East matchup with starkly different trajectories. The Phillies, boasting a record of 85-56, are firmly in contention and have been riding high on their recent success, including a dominant 16-2 victory over the Marlins just yesterday. Meanwhile, the Marlins languish at 52-89, struggling through a dismal season.

Darren McCaughan is set to take the mound for the Marlins, and he enters this game with a troubling 8.24 ERA, ranking him as the 327th best starting pitcher in MLB. McCaughan has also projected to allow an average of 3.3 earned runs in 4.8 innings pitched, which only adds to the concerns surrounding his performance. His high walk rate (10.0 BB%) could be particularly problematic against a patient Phillies lineup that ranks 4th in walks this season.

On the other side, Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies. With a solid 3.29 ERA and a 12-6 record, Nola ranks as the 38th best starting pitcher in MLB. He projects well today, allowing an average of just 2.4 earned runs over 5.8 innings. While Nola has shown flashes of luck in his performance, his low walk rate (6.1 BB%) might work to his advantage against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in overall talent.

The projections suggest a significant gap in offensive capability, with the Phillies expected to score around 5.87 runs while the Marlins are projected for just 3.90 runs. Given the contrasting performances and the stakes of the game, it’s hard to overlook the Phillies as the clear favorites.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-170/+130)
  Given the 0.96 discrepancy between Aaron Nola’s 8.46 K/9 and his 9.42 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform better the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Schwarber has strong power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (28.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Darren McCaughan struggles to strike batters out (23rd percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Darren McCaughan – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  In his last outing, Darren McCaughan wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out and was only able to tally 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• David Hensley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  David Hensley has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 82.5-mph dropping to 71.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Stowers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 6th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games at home (+17.65 Units / 32% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)