Check the Betting Guide and Odds for White Sox vs Padres – Sunday September 22nd, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Chicago White Sox are set to face off once more at Petco Park on September 22, 2024, in the final game of their interleague series. The Padres, sitting on a solid record of 89-66, are not only enjoying a successful season but are also in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the White Sox, with a dismal 36-119 record, find themselves at the bottom of the league standings and are looking to salvage some dignity in the final stretch of the season.

In their previous encounter on September 21, the Padres secured a commanding 6-2 victory over the White Sox, continuing Chicago’s struggles and further cementing San Diego’s momentum as they push towards the postseason. The Padres have been riding high on their impressive offensive performance, ranking 5th in MLB, with standout contributions from Jurickson Profar and a red-hot Fernando Tatis Jr. over the last week.

The pitching matchup features Yu Darvish for the Padres and Sean Burke for the White Sox. Darvish, ranked 66th among starting pitchers, boasts a 3.21 ERA and is projected to give the Padres a strong start. Although his xFIP of 3.97 suggests some regression might be due, Darvish’s ability to limit walks and capitalize on the White Sox’s lackluster offense, which ranks dead last in batting average and home runs, gives him a significant edge.

On the other side, Sean Burke enters with a 2.25 ERA, but projections indicate potential struggles, as his xFIP of 4.19 suggests he’s been benefiting from some luck. With the Padres’ offense projected to score over 5 runs, Burke and the struggling White Sox bullpen, ranked 28th, could face a tough outing.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, has the Padres as massive favorites with a 72% win probability, aligning with the betting odds that imply a 74% chance of victory for the home team. All signs point to the Padres continuing their winning ways as they aim to sweep the series.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Sean Burke has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 16.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Lenyn Sosa has experienced some negative variance this year. His .262 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .320.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+270)
  The Chicago White Sox projected batting order profiles as the 2nd-worst of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Yu Darvish must realize this, because he has relied on his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 63.1% of the time, grading out in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Donovan Solano – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Donovan Solano has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-325)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 74 games (+14.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 away games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-145/+115)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+8.50 Units / 14% ROI)