Texas Rangers
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-125
The Houston Astros and the Texas Rangers are set to wrap up their series at Minute Maid Park on July 14, 2024. The Astros, boasting a 50-45 record, have had an above-average season and currently sit near the top of the American League West standings. The Rangers, with a 45-50 record, have struggled and find themselves lower in the standings.
The pitching matchup features Houston’s Ronel Blanco against Texas’ Max Scherzer. Blanco, a right-hander, has recorded a 9-3 win-loss record and an impressive 2.53 ERA over his 17 starts this season. However, his 4.20 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit lucky and could face some regression. Blanco is projected to pitch 5.4 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs on average. His strikeout numbers (4.6 projected) have been below average, and he has struggled with control, allowing 2.2 walks on average.
On the other side, Scherzer, also a right-hander, has been solid with a 3.09 ERA and a 4.30 xFIP in his four starts this year. His 1-2 win-loss record may not reflect his true performance. Scherzer is projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. Interestingly, he has faced a low-strikeout Astros offense, which ranks 1st in MLB for least strikeouts, potentially neutralizing his ability to capitalize on his strikeout strength.
Houston’s offense, ranked 6th overall and 1st in team batting average, has been led by Joey Loperfido, who has hit .400 with a 1.417 OPS and a home run over the last week. The Rangers’ offense, ranked 17th, leans heavily on Corey Seager, who has been hot lately with a .333 average, 8 hits, 5 runs, 8 RBIs, and 3 home runs in the past week.
The Astros’ bullpen, ranked 7th, has a clear edge over the Rangers’ 20th-ranked unit. This bullpen edge, combined with their superior offensive firepower, gives Houston a significant advantage in the later innings of this matchup.
While the current betting market gives Houston a 55% implied win probability, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this game as much closer, projecting a 51% chance of a Rangers victory. This suggests there might be some value in betting on Texas, especially given Scherzer’s pedigree and recent form. Expect a closely contested game with the potential for surprises, typical of an intense division rivalry.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)Max Scherzer is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #6 HR venue in MLB in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Ronel Blanco – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ronel Blanco must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot this year: 63.3% of the time, checking in at the 88th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Jon Singleton – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Jon Singleton is likely to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-125)The 4th-best projected offense of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Houston Astros.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+165)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 25 games (+16.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+13.65 Units / 31% ROI)