Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Nationals vs Cubs – Friday September 20th, 2024

Washington Nationals

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Chicago Cubs

As the MLB season winds down, the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals are set to clash in the second game of their series at Wrigley Field on September 20, 2024. The Cubs, sitting at 78-75, are striving to finish strong in an average season, while the Nationals, at 68-85, are enduring a rough stretch, having already been eliminated from division contention.

Yesterday’s series opener saw the Cubs narrowly edge out the Nationals with a 7-6 win, marking another victory in a series where they were heavily favored. Chicago’s offense, ranked 12th in Power Rankings, outperformed their 14th year-to-date rank in batting average and displayed decent power with the 19th rank in home runs. Meanwhile, Washington’s offense, ranked 23rd, has shown little power, with only the 29th rank in home runs.

On the mound, the Cubs will send Jameson Taillon, who has been a solid but unspectacular presence this season, with a 10-8 record and a 3.54 ERA. Despite these numbers, his 4.09 xFIP suggests he might have been fortunate, and against a Nationals team known for their ability to avoid strikeouts, Taillon could face challenges. Trevor Williams will counter for Washington, boasting an impressive 5-0 record and a 2.22 ERA. However, his 3.96 xFIP indicates a potential regression, and the Cubs’ offense, projected to score 5.88 runs, could exploit this.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Cubs with a 60% win probability, aligning with the betting odds that list them as -165 favorites. With Chicago’s offense poised to capitalize on Williams’ vulnerabilities and the Nationals struggling in the bullpen, the Cubs appear well-positioned to secure another victory in this National League matchup.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Trevor Williams – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average hurler, Trevor Williams has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing an -7.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Andres Chaparro – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Andres Chaparro has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 6% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Gallo pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  With 7 bats of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Jameson Taillon has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Michael Busch has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the past week to his seasonal 89.8-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Chicago Cubs have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Patrick Wisdom, Michael Busch, Christian Bethancourt).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games at home (+11.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 54 away games (+8.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+16.20 Units / 25% ROI)