Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for White Sox vs Braves – Monday, August 18, 2025

Chicago White Sox

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on August 18, 2025, both teams are far from their peak performance. The Braves currently hold a record of 56-68, indicative of a below-average season, while the White Sox sit at a dismal 44-80, marking one of the worst campaigns in recent memory. The stakes might not be high for either team, but this matchup brings a compelling narrative, especially with Spencer Strider projected to start for Atlanta.

Strider, ranked as the 37th best starting pitcher in MLB, enters this game with a Win/Loss record of 5-10 and an ERA of 4.69. However, his advanced metrics suggest that he has been somewhat unlucky, and he is projected to allow just 2.3 earned runs over 5.7 innings today. Meanwhile, Yoendrys Gomez, slated to pitch for the White Sox, has struggled significantly this season. With an ERA of 5.56 and projections indicating he may allow 2.7 earned runs in just 4.1 innings, Gomez’s performance may struggle against a capable Braves offense.

Despite ranking only 14th in MLB in offensive efficiency, the Braves have a strong advantage over the White Sox’s lineup, which ranks 29th. The White Sox have been particularly ineffective, evidenced by their low batting average, and they will need to rely on their power to keep pace.

The Braves come into this game as substantial favorites, evidenced by their high implied team total of 4.93 runs. With the projections suggesting that Gomez might walk several batters—he has a 13.2% walk rate—and the Braves’ patience at the plate (3rd most walks in MLB), they may capitalize on these opportunities. All signs point to a favorable matchup for the Braves, making them a strong bet in this interleague contest.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Yoendrys Gomez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Yoendrys Gomez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 7.94 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.49 — a 0.55 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Robert Jr.’s true offensive skill to be a .322, indicating that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .287 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Miguel Vargas hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Out of all starters, Spencer Strider’s fastball velocity of 94.9 mph is in the 79th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Over the last week, Jurickson Profar’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.65 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 60 away games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Michael Harris II – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.90 Units / 33% ROI)