Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Twins vs Padres – Monday, August 19, 2024

Minnesota Twins

@

San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 19, 2024, both teams find themselves in a competitive playoff race, each sporting impressive records of 70-55 and 70-54, respectively. This Interleague matchup holds significance as it marks the first game of a series that could have implications for postseason positioning.

In their last outing, the Padres showcased their strength, featuring a stellar performance from their ace, Michael King, who has been on a roll this season. King, currently ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasts a solid 3.19 ERA and is projected to strike out an average of 7.1 batters today. However, he has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 4.4 hits and 1.7 walks, which could provide an opening for the Twins’ offense.

On the other side, Zebby Matthews is set to make just his second start of the season for the Twins. While his ERA sits at a respectable 3.60, he has only started one game, and his projections suggest he may struggle to go deep into the game. With an average of 4.9 innings pitched and 5.3 hits allowed projected, the Padres’ potent offense, currently ranked 1st in team batting average and 8th in home runs, could exploit this matchup.

Overall, despite the Twins’ strong season, the Padres’ well-rounded offense and superior pitching depth, particularly with their top-tier bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, position them as the favorites in this game. The current moneyline reflects this sentiment, giving the Padres an implied team total of 3.84 runs, while the Twins are projected for just 3.16 runs, indicating a potential edge for San Diego in this crucial matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  With 6 bats who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Daniel Matthews will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Christian Vazquez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 77.5-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected offense today (.312 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be significantly worse than their .324 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Michael King’s fastball velocity has dropped 1.4 mph this season (92.1 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Based on Statcast metrics, Luis Arraez grades out in the 1st percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year at 1.100.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 61 games at home (+9.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+10.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)