Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Red Sox vs Padres – Friday, August 08, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres host the Boston Red Sox on August 8, 2025, both teams come into this interleague matchup with solid records, standing just a game apart. The Padres sit at 64-51 and are enjoying a good season, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 64-52. The stakes are present, but neither team is in a position to strongly contend for their respective divisions, yet both are vying for Wild Card spots.

In their last game, the Padres showcased their pitching prowess with Nick Pivetta, who is projected to start tonight. Pivetta has been a standout, owning an impressive 11-3 record and an excellent ERA of 2.73 this year. However, advanced statistics suggest he might have been a bit fortunate, as his 3.64 xFIP indicates a potential regression. Nevertheless, his high strikeout rate of 27.0% gives him an advantage against a Red Sox offense that has the 4th most strikeouts in MLB this season.

On the other side, Walker Buehler is expected to take the mound for Boston, but his season has been far from stellar. He carries a record of 6-6 and a troubling ERA of 5.74. While projections indicate he may perform better than his current stats suggest, his low strikeout rate of 16.7% could hinder him against a Padres team that ranks 3rd in fewest strikeouts. This matchup appears favorable for San Diego, especially given their #2 ranked bullpen according to advanced-stat Power Rankings.

The Padres’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, which means they may struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities. In contrast, the Red Sox bark up the 6th best ranking in offense this season, potentially giving them an edge in run production. However, given the Padres’ strong pitching and their home-field advantage at Petco Park, it sets up an intriguing battle that could tilt in favor of San Diego as they aim to cement their position in the playoff race.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Walker Buehler has tallied 14.8 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme flyball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Nick Pivetta – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Nick Pivetta’s curveball percentage has spiked by 5.9% from last season to this one (16.5% to 22.4%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ryan O’Hearn is penciled in 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best out of all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 78 games (+16.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+145)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 31 games (+14.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.05 Units / 85% ROI)