Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Rays vs Tigers – Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 24, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Tigers, with an 82-74 record, have had an above-average season and remain in the hunt for a postseason spot. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 78-78, reflecting an average season, and their playoff hopes are dwindling.

The Tigers have a significant edge on the mound with Tarik Skubal, who is ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Skubal boasts a stellar 17-4 record and an impressive 2.48 ERA. His ability to strike out batters (30.3 K% this year) aligns well against a Rays lineup that ranks 6th in most strikeouts, potentially giving him a distinct advantage. On the flip side, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot, who holds a respectable 8-6 record and a 3.64 ERA. While Pepiot is no slouch at 51st in the Power Rankings, he faces a Tigers team that, although ranked 24th in offense, has been buoyed by Kerry Carpenter’s hot streak over the past week.

Offensively, both teams have struggled, with the Tigers and Rays ranking 24th and 27th, respectively. However, the Rays have demonstrated an ability to swipe bases, ranking 4th in stolen bases, which could be a key factor in generating runs against Detroit’s solid pitching.

The bullpens could play a pivotal role in this matchup. Detroit’s bullpen ranks 10th, while Tampa Bay’s is even stronger at 3rd. However, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Tigers are favored with a projected win probability of 62%, slightly above their implied probability of 63%. As both teams aim to finish their seasons on a high note, this game promises to be an intriguing battle of pitching prowess and strategic execution.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+160)
  The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jonny Deluca – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Jonny Deluca has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph dropping to 79.5-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Today, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tarik Skubal has averaged 18.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-185)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+18.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+150/-195)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 155 games (+23.16 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Spencer Torkelson has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+6.05 Units / 65% ROI)