Tampa Bay Rays
Detroit Tigers
(-105/-115)-180
Detroit and Tampa Bay open their series on September 24, 2024, at Comerica Park, with both teams having differing motivations in the closing stretch of the season. The Tigers sit at 82-74, enjoying an above-average season and still in the hunt for a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Rays, at an even 78-78, are having a more average season and are at risk of missing the playoffs unless they finish strong.
Pitching matchups take center stage in this showdown. Detroit’s Tarik Skubal, who boasts an elite #1 ranking in starting pitcher Power Rankings, is a lefty with an impressive 17-4 record and 2.48 ERA. His high strikeout rate goes head-to-head against a Rays offense that ranks 6th in most strikeouts, giving Skubal the potential for a dominant outing. On the flip side, Tampa Bay counters with Ryan Pepiot, ranked 51st among MLB starters. Pepiot holds a solid 8-6 record with a 3.64 ERA, facing a Tigers offense ranked 24th in overall performance.
While the Tigers’ offense struggles with consistency, they can lean on Kerry Carpenter, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .444 average and two home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays find hope in Jonathan Aranda’s recent form, with three homers and a .333 average in his last six games.
THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives Detroit a favorable 63% win probability, aligning closely with the implied betting lines. If the Tigers capitalize on their strong starting pitching and recent offensive sparks, they are poised to meet these expectations against a Rays team in need of late-season heroics.
Tampa Bay Rays Insights
- Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (+155)The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among all the teams in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Jose Siri’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.5-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 78.7-mph in the past 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Today, Brandon Lowe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.4% rate (96th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under Pitching OutsTarik Skubal has averaged 18.5 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 97th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Spencer Torkelson is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-180)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 69 games (+18.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 92 of their last 155 games (+23.16 Units / 13% ROI)
- Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+5.95 Units / 19% ROI)