Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Pirates vs Cubs – Tuesday, September 03, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 3, 2024, they find themselves needing a strong performance after losing to the Pirates 5-3 just a day prior. Currently, the Cubs hold a record of 71-67, putting them in an average position within the competitive National League Central, while the Pirates trail with a 64-73 record, reflecting a below-average season.

The matchup on the mound is intriguing, with the Cubs projected to start Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled this season, holding a 3-10 record and an alarming 6.75 ERA. Hendricks was blown up in his last outing, allowing 6 earned runs in just 2 innings. In contrast, Pirates rookie Paul Skenes has emerged as an elite starter, boasting an 8-2 record and an impressive 2.23 ERA. Skenes is coming off a solid performance where he limited opponents to only 2 earned runs over 5 innings, showcasing his ability to dominate hitters.

Despite the Cubs’ average offensive ranking at 14th in MLB, they have struggled recently, ranking 23rd in team batting average and home runs. However, their top hitter, Ian Happ, has been a consistent performer, contributing solid runs and RBIs throughout the season. Over the last week, Dansby Swanson has emerged as the hottest batter, demonstrating his capability to deliver when needed.

Meanwhile, the projections suggest that the Cubs, despite their struggles, could score around 3.51 runs this game, while the Pirates are projected for 4.26 runs. With both teams having noted issues on offense, the low Game Total of 7.0 runs indicates that this could be a tightly contested match. As the Cubs look to bounce back, they will rely heavily on a strong outing from Hendricks to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Among all starters, Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity of 98.1 mph ranks in the 100th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  The Chicago Cubs have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rowdy Tellez stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Andrew McCutchen – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.6% — 79th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Kyle Hendricks – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 13.9 outs per GS this year on average, Kyle Hendricks ranks in the 6th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Pittsburgh’s 3rd-worst outfield defense on the slate today creates a favorable matchup for Cody Bellinger, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Chicago Cubs offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 49 games at home (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 92 games (+10.20 Units / 9% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.55 Units / 42% ROI)