San Diego Padres
Detroit Tigers
(-105/-115)-165
As the Detroit Tigers host the San Diego Padres on April 23, 2025, both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Tigers sitting at 14-10 and the Padres at 17-7. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game of their series, with the Tigers looking to bounce back after a disappointing 2-0 loss in their last game. Meanwhile, the Padres secured their shutout victory in the same game, showcasing their potent offense.
On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Reese Olson, a right-handed pitcher who has been relatively effective this year with a 2-1 record and an ERA of 4.50. Olson is ranked as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average. His last outing was impressive, as he pitched 5 innings of shutout ball, allowing just 4 hits. Olson’s strong performance suggests he might be due for a solid showing against a Padres lineup that, while powerful, has its own challenges.
Opposing him is Kyle Hart, a left-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 6.48 ERA. Hart’s last start was particularly rough, where he allowed 5 earned runs over 5 innings. His low strikeout rate and high hit projection could play into the hands of the Tigers, who rank 16th in MLB for offense but are capable of capitalizing on mistakes.
The projections for this game lean slightly in favor of the Tigers, who have a high implied team total of 4.66 runs. With both teams bringing solid bullpens to the table—Detroit’s ranks 2nd and San Diego’s ranks 6th—this game promises to be competitive, potentially with the Tigers leveraging their pitching advantage to get back on track after yesterday’s setback.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)Kyle Hart is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #25 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Oscar Gonzalez – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)Oscar Gonzalez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)In today’s matchup, Manny Machado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.6% rate (96th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Reese Olson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Reese Olson has used his sinker 7.8% more often this year (28%) than he did last year (20.2%).Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Justyn-Henry Malloy has seen a big increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 97.4-mph average over the past 7 days to his seasonal 86.5-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the most strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Detroit Tigers with a 25.4% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (+140)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)Gleyber Torres has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)