New York Mets
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-120
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to take on the New York Mets on August 11, 2024, in an intriguing interleague matchup at T-Mobile Park, both teams are vying for a solid finish to the season. The Mariners sit at 62-56, while the Mets are just behind at 61-56, indicating they’ve both had above-average seasons. Last night, the Mariners secured a shutout victory against the Mets, winning 4-0, which could provide them with a psychological edge heading into today’s game.
On the mound, the Mariners will start Luis Castillo, who is having a solid year, with an ERA of 3.48 and a Power Rankings position of 40th among MLB pitchers. Castillo has been consistent, pitching an average of 6.0 innings per game and projecting to allow only 2.2 earned runs today. In his last outing, he managed to keep runs to a minimum, going 6 innings with 3 earned runs and racking up 9 strikeouts.
In contrast, the Mets will counter with Luis Severino, who has struggled this season, ranking unfavorably in Power Rankings and posting an ERA of 4.06. Severino’s last start saw him allow 4 earned runs over 5 innings, which doesn’t inspire much confidence against a Mariners offense that, despite ranking 27th in the league, has shown glimpses of power with 14th in home runs.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Mariners today, giving them an edge with a projected win probability of 61%. This suggests that the Mariners may be undervalued by the betting markets, as their current moneyline of -120 implies only a 52% chance of winning. Given the recent shutout and Castillo’s strong performance, the Mariners appear to be in a favorable position to extend their winning streak.
New York Mets Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)Luis Severino’s 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 88th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)Using Statcast metrics, Jose Iglesias is in the 99th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .322.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- New York Mets hitters as a unit place 6th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 9.2% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” today, Luis Castillo may not stay on the mound for more than a couple frames considering he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Josh Rojas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games at home (+13.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (+100)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 58 games (+12.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 41 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)