Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Mariners vs Rangers – Saturday, September 21, 2024

Seattle Mariners

@

Texas Rangers

As the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers prepare to face off at Globe Life Field on September 21, 2024, both teams are in contrasting states this season. The Mariners, with a 79-75 record, are having an average season and are still in the hunt, while the Rangers, standing at 73-81, are struggling far below expectations. This American League West matchup continues the series, with the Mariners taking the opener with an 8-2 victory over the Rangers on September 20.

Both teams will send their right-handed pitchers to the mound, with the Rangers starting Dane Dunning and the Mariners countering with Emerson Hancock. Dunning holds a 4-7 record and a concerning 5.38 ERA, though his underlying metrics suggest he’s been a bit unlucky. Hancock, with a 3-4 record and a 4.83 ERA, has benefited from some luck, as his peripheral stats indicate potential regression.

Offensively, neither team has been particularly impressive, with the Rangers ranked 25th in overall offense and the Mariners slightly better at 22nd. However, Seattle’s 14th-ranked power could pose a threat against Dunning, who is known for yielding walks. The Mariners’ patient approach, as the team ranked 4th in walks, could exploit Dunning’s high 9.8 BB%.

On the flip side, Texas’s bullpen, ranked 5th, could play a crucial role in containing Seattle’s less potent offense, which has struggled with a 29th-ranked team batting average. Despite the challenges, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 54% projected win probability, suggesting potential value for bettors backing Texas at even odds. With both teams projected to score over 4.5 runs, this clash promises an intriguing balance of pitching and offense, even if the playoff implications are more significant for the Mariners.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Over his previous 3 starts, Emerson Hancock has experienced a big drop off in his fastball velocity: from 92.7 mph over the entire season to 91.3 mph in recent games.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Luke Raley has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.8-mph average to last season’s 94.7-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Dane Dunning – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Dane Dunning to have a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In terms of his home runs, Wyatt Langford has had bad variance on his side this year. His 13.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.4.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 74 games at home (+15.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 42 away games (+13.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• Jonah Heim – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+135/-175)
  Jonah Heim has hit the Runs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)