Check Out the Top Player Prop Picks for Cubs vs Nationals – Sunday, September 01, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Washington Nationals

On September 1, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Chicago Cubs at Nationals Park for the third game in their series. The Nationals, currently sitting at 61-75, are having a rough season and have been eliminated from division contention. In contrast, the Cubs hold a record of 70-66, marking them as an average team this year.

In their previous game, the Nationals struggled, while the Cubs managed to secure a win, adding to their momentum. For this matchup, the Nationals are projected to start Mitchell Parker, a left-handed pitcher with a 7-8 record and a 4.26 ERA. Although Parker ranks as the 162nd best starting pitcher in MLB, his performance has been inconsistent, and he projects to pitch only 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs today.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jordan Wicks, also a left-handed pitcher. Wicks has a 1-2 record but boasts a slightly better ERA of 4.18 and a more favorable 3.10 FIP, suggesting he may have been unlucky in his outings. Wicks is projected to pitch 5.3 innings with an average of 2.4 earned runs allowed.

The Nationals’ offense ranks 22nd in MLB, which is indicative of their struggles this season, particularly with power, as they sit 29th in home runs. However, they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd, which could be a factor against a Cubs pitching staff that has allowed the 5th most walks in MLB.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Cubs are favored in this matchup, but given the Nationals’ potential for speed on the base paths and the Cubs’ recent inconsistencies, this game could be closer than the odds suggest. The projections indicate a high total of 9.0 runs for the game, suggesting that both offenses may find opportunities to score.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jordan Wicks – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jordan Wicks has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 59.7% of the time, checking in at the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.329) suggests that Pete Crow-Armstrong has been unlucky this year with his .286 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Out of all starters, Mitchell Parker’s fastball spin rate of 2197 rpm grades out in the 18th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  CJ Abrams has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (98% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+110)
  The Washington Nationals projected lineup projects as the 5th-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Mitchell Parker has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+8.30 Units / 59% ROI)