Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Rangers vs Angels Matchup ((7/10/2024)

Texas Rangers

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Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels will host the Texas Rangers on July 10, 2024, at Angel Stadium in the third game of their series. The Angels have had a rough season with a 37-54 record, while the Rangers are slightly better at 44-48, though still below average. This American League West matchup has the Angels looking to bounce back after a narrow 5-4 loss to the Rangers yesterday.

Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels. Canning has struggled this season, with a 3-9 record and a 4.87 ERA over 18 starts. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he ranks as the 235th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350, making him one of the worst in MLB. In his last outing on July 5, Canning pitched 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, 6 hits, and 2 walks—an uneventful performance.

The Rangers will counter with Michael Lorenzen, who boasts a 5-4 record and an impressive 3.21 ERA over 15 starts. However, his 4.85 xFIP suggests he’s been fortunate and could regress. In his last start on July 5, Lorenzen pitched well, going 5 innings with 0 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, and 1 hit, although he did allow 5 walks.

Offensively, the Angels rank 22nd in MLB, with their team batting average at 20th and home runs at 15th. They do have a bright spot in stolen bases, ranking 7th. Taylor Ward has been their standout hitter, while Logan O’Hoppe has been hot over the last week, batting .304 with a .969 OPS and 2 home runs.

The Rangers’ offense ranks 16th overall, with an average ranking in batting average (17th) and home runs (15th), but a poor ranking in stolen bases (21st). Marcus Semien has been their best hitter this season, while Corey Seager has been on fire recently, hitting .370 with a 1.211 OPS and 2 home runs over the past week.

Betting markets see this game as tight, with the Angels at +110 and the Rangers at -130. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Angels a 48% chance to win, slightly higher than their implied probability, suggesting there could be value in backing the home team in this matchup.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Tallying 17.4 outs per start this year on average, Michael Lorenzen places in the 84th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Josh H. Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Josh Smith has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .369 rate is a fair amount higher than his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Positioned 5th-highest in baseball this year, Texas Rangers hitters jointly have notched a 15.1° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced metric to evaluate power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  Griffin Canning has utilized his change-up 5.6% more often this season (27.4%) than he did last season (21.8%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Mickey Moniak has big-time power (79th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Michael Lorenzen doesn’t generate many whiffs (19th percentile K%) — great news for Moniak.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels’ bullpen projects as the worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Over in 52 of their last 90 games (+9.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 69 games (+13.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+120/-155)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+14.05 Units / 29% ROI)