Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-120/+100)-150
In a key National League matchup on September 17, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are in the thick of the postseason race this late in the season, with the Dodgers sitting at 84-67 and the Phillies boasting a strong record of 91-61. In their last meeting, the Dodgers suffered a 9-6 defeat, marking a tough spot as they look to turn the series around.
The Dodgers are projected to start Blake Snell, who has been impressive this season with a 2.79 ERA. Despite having an average Win/Loss record of 4-4 over 9 starts, Snell’s strikeout ability is exceptional, as he projects to strike out 7.2 batters on average today. However, he faces some concerns with his peripherals, since his 3.31 xFIP indicates he might have been a bit lucky thus far. In his last outing on September 10, Snell delivered six innings of solid pitching, not allowing any earned runs, and racking up 11 strikeouts.
On the other side, the Phillies will send out Jesus Luzardo, who carries a 4.03 ERA into this matchup but has seen significant action, starting 30 games this season. While Luzardo’s 14-6 record suggests he’s been successful, advanced stats project a slight potential for improvement in his performance. He allowed 4 earned runs over 8 innings in his last start, showing some inconsistency that the Dodgers could exploit.
Offensively, both teams are strong, with the Dodgers ranked 3rd and the Phillies ranked 4th in MLB offensive Power Rankings. Los Angeles excels in power-hitting, ranking 2nd in team home runs, while Philadelphia also contributes with a solid lineup. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, betting odds favor the Dodgers with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.31 runs, hinting at a favorable afternoon for their potent offense. The odds favor the Dodgers, but with the Phillies riding a winning streak and looking to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in Snell’s game, excitement is guaranteed.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 5.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Kyle Schwarber pulls many of his flyballs (40.7% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Blake Snell’s change-up utilization has spiked by 6.5% from last season to this one (17.5% to 24%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Tommy Edman has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.1-mph to 98.3-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Los Angeles Dodgers (21 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone batting order on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 66 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 50 away games (+18.35 Units / 31% ROI)
- Weston Wilson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)Weston Wilson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+16.90 Units / 241% ROI)