Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Phillies vs Braves Matchup (July 05, 2024)

Philadelphia Phillies

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies face off in a National League East battle on July 5, 2024, at Truist Park. The Braves, sitting at 47-38, are having a good season but lag behind the Phillies, who boast an impressive 57-30 record. This matchup could have significant implications for the division standings.

Max Fried, an elite pitcher ranked 6th by advanced Power Rankings, is set to start for Atlanta. Fried’s 2.91 ERA highlights his strong season, though peripheral indicators like his 3.43 xERA suggest he may have been a bit fortunate. However, his high ground-ball rate (59%) could neutralize the Phillies’ powerful offense, which ranks 5th in home runs. Fried is projected to pitch 6.3 innings, allowing just 2.2 earned runs on average.

Philadelphia will counter with Aaron Nola, ranked 29th among starting pitchers. Nola has been consistent with a 3.43 ERA and a hefty 9-4 record. Nola projects to pitch 5.8 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs. Notably, his strikeout potential (6.4 per game) could challenge an Atlanta offense ranked 14th in the league. Despite his solid numbers, Nola’s 1.2 projected walks per game could be detrimental.

The Braves’ offense is average, ranking 14th overall and 16th in team batting average. Marcell Ozuna has been their standout hitter, with 21 home runs and a .933 OPS. Over the last week, Austin Riley has been particularly hot, posting a 1.000 OPS.

Conversely, the Phillies’ offense is a powerhouse, ranking 4th overall and 3rd in batting average. Alec Bohm has been their best hitter, with a .296 batting average and an .835 OPS. Garrett Stubbs has been hot recently, hitting .300 with a 1.117 OPS over the last week.

Both teams are coming off losses, with the Braves falling to the Giants 4-2 and the Phillies getting trounced by the Cubs 10-2. However, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, projects the Braves as heavy favorites with a 61% win probability. This projection is 5% higher than the current betting market suggests, presenting potential value in wagering on Atlanta.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 19.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.1 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Johan Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Johan Rojas has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.7-mph to 92.6-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Max Fried has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Using Statcast metrics, Marcell Ozuna grades out in the 98th percentile for offensive skills per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .383.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jarred Kelenic – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Jarred Kelenic hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 67 games (+26.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 83 games (+18.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Austin Riley – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)