Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Guardians vs Cardinals Matchup 9/21/2024

Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 21, 2024, at Busch Stadium, both teams come into the matchup with contrasting seasons. The Cardinals, with a 77-77 record, are having an average season. Meanwhile, the Guardians are enjoying a strong campaign, boasting a 90-65 record and clearly contending for a playoff spot.

In the first game of this interleague series, the Guardians took the win, setting the tone for the series. The Cardinals will look to even the series with Miles Mikolas on the mound. Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season, reflected in his 8-11 record and a high 5.49 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.07 suggests some bad luck, pointing to potential improvement. Mikolas faces a low-strikeout Guardians offense, which ranks 4th in least strikeouts, potentially posing a challenge for the righty.

On the other side, Cleveland will counter with Matthew Boyd, a left-hander who has been stellar in limited action this year. Boyd’s 2.52 ERA is impressive, though his xFIP of 3.80 indicates he might have been a bit fortunate. Boyd will face a Cardinals offense ranked 19th overall, but with a decent team batting average at 13th. However, their power numbers are lacking, as they sit 23rd in home runs.

The Guardians hold the edge in bullpen strength, ranking 5th compared to the Cardinals’ 12th. Offensively, the Guardians have more pop, ranking 12th in home runs, and they excel on the basepaths, ranking 5th in stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Cardinals a 51% win probability, suggesting some value in betting on St. Louis, as this is 6% higher than the betting market’s implied probability. With both teams eyeing different goals, this matchup promises to be an intriguing battle.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Matthew Boyd’s change-up utilization has risen by 8% from last year to this one (18.7% to 26.7%) .
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+115)
  Among all the teams today, the 3rd-best infield defense is that of the St. Louis Cardinals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Michael Siani – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Michael Siani’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.7-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 81.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.05 Units / 43% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+7.85 Units / 44% ROI)