Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Cardinals vs Guardians Matchup 6/29/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 29, 2025, at Progressive Field, both teams find themselves at a critical juncture in their seasons. The Guardians currently sit at 40-41, just a game below .500 and struggling to find offensive consistency, ranked 26th in MLB. In contrast, the Cardinals boast a better record at 46-38, fueled by a solid offensive performance that places them in the middle of the pack at 15th overall.

In their previous matchup, the Cardinals edged out the Guardians, which adds to the importance of this game for Cleveland, who are looking to rebound. The Guardians are projected to send Logan Allen to the mound, a left-hander with a 5-5 record and an ERA of 4.25, indicating an average season. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate, as his 4.84 xFIP indicates potential regression. Allen’s tendency to allow runs is concerning, especially against a Cardinals lineup that features a solid batting average and good overall performance.

Matthew Liberatore, also a left-handed pitcher, will take the hill for St. Louis. With a 5-6 record and an impressive ERA of 3.96, Liberatore falls into the average category, but projections indicate he could perform even better based on his favorable FIP of 2.97.

Given that the Guardians’ offense has struggled to make significant noise, this matchup appears to favor the Cardinals, especially with their slightly higher implied team total of 4.40 runs compared to the Guardians’ 4.10. With both teams aiming to capitalize on this pivotal moment, the outcome will hinge on which pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup and whether either offense can break through.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 7 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Matthew Liberatore will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Allen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Logan Allen’s 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decline from last year’s 91.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Bo Naylor – Over/Under Total Bases
  Bo Naylor has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 11% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Johnathan Rodriguez, Bo Naylor).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts