Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Cardinals vs Guardians Matchup 6/29/2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians host the St. Louis Cardinals on June 29, 2025, the stakes remain high in this interleague matchup. Both teams are looking to gain momentum after the Cardinals triumphed over the Guardians 9-6 the previous day, pushing Cleveland to a record of 40-41 this season, while St. Louis stands at 46-38.

Cleveland’s Logan Allen takes the mound, projected to pitch 5.5 innings and allowing 2.7 earned runs on average. However, his ranking as the 269th best starting pitcher in MLB suggests he has struggled this season. Allen has a Win/Loss record of 5-5 and his 4.25 ERA is above average, but his 4.86 xFIP indicates he might have been fortunate and could face challenges going forward. Conversely, St. Louis’s Matthew Liberatore, with a record of 5-6 and a solid 3.96 ERA, is seen as an average pitcher. His 2.98 FIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

At the plate, the Guardians’ offense ranks 25th overall, struggling particularly in power categories, sitting 22nd in home runs and 27th in batting average. This is in stark contrast to the Cardinals, whose offense ranks 15th and boasts a better batting average, ranking 10th.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Guardians’ bullpen is a bright spot, rated 2nd best in MLB, which could play a crucial role in keeping the game close. With a Game Total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers indicate a tight contest ahead. Cleveland’s moneyline is currently -110, reflecting equal confidence in both teams, but with their advanced metrics showing a more talented squad than their record suggests, they could pull off an upset against the Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  With 8 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Matthew Liberatore will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Typically, batters like Nolan Arenado who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Logan Allen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Logan Allen’s 90.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1-mph decline from last year’s 91.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jose Ramirez has struggled with his Barrel% recently; his 7.8% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Austin Hedges (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 34 away games (+12.05 Units / 26% ROI)
• Thomas Saggese – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-220)
  Thomas Saggese has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)