Check Out the Team Stats and Prediction for Astros vs Rays Matchup 8/13/2024

Houston Astros

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Tampa Bay Rays

On August 13, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Houston Astros in a crucial matchup at Tropicana Field. Both teams are looking to enhance their standings, with the Astros currently holding a record of 63-55, which places them firmly in the playoff conversation. The Rays sit at 59-59, struggling to find consistency this season. After their most recent game, which concluded with a 6-1 victory for the Astros, Tampa Bay will be eager to rebound.

Rays’ pitcher Shane Baz, ranked 130th among MLB starters, is set to take the mound. He has struggled this season with a 0-1 record over 6 starts and an ERA of 4.30. His last outing on August 8 was uneventful, allowing 4 earned runs in just 4 innings. In contrast, the Astros will counter with Yusei Kikuchi, who has been more effective, boasting a 5-9 record in 24 starts and an average ERA of 4.62. Kikuchi pitched well in his last start, allowing just 2 earned runs over 5 innings, with 8 strikeouts.

Offensively, the mismatch is notable. The Astros rank 10th overall in MLB, showcasing a powerful attack led by Yordan Alvarez, who has 25 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Rays rank 23rd in team batting average and home runs, indicating significant struggles at the plate. The projections suggest a low total of 3.66 runs for Tampa Bay, emphasizing their offensive challenges.

Despite the Rays’ recent defeat, they are slightly favored with a current moneyline of +100, while the Astros sit at -120. The projections indicate a close game, but the Astros’ recent form and offensive prowess could tilt the scales in their favor as they aim for a decisive series win.

Houston Astros Insights

• Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Yusei Kikuchi’s 95-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 83rd percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#1-best on the slate).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to league average, Shane Baz has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -10.8 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 71 of their last 117 games (+20.65 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 100 games (+15.90 Units / 14% ROI)
• Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.10 Units / 63% ROI)