Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Yankees vs Rangers – 8/04/25

New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers will host the New York Yankees on August 4, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Rangers currently sit at 58-55, having had an average season, while the Yankees are at 60-52, boasting an above-average performance thus far. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Rangers’ recent struggles.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Patrick Corbin, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 290th best starting pitcher in MLB. Corbin’s win/loss record stands at 6-7 with a solid ERA of 3.78, but his projected performance suggests he will pitch 5.2 innings while allowing around 2.7 earned runs and striking out 5.1 batters. Meanwhile, the Yankees will counter with Max Fried, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB. Fried’s impressive 12-4 record and excellent ERA of 2.62 highlight his outstanding season, and the projections suggest he will pitch 6.1 innings, allowing just 1.9 earned runs.

Offensively, the Yankees rank 1st in MLB, showcasing their power with a league-leading number of home runs. In contrast, the Rangers’ offense ranks 28th, struggling significantly despite their decent showing in home runs, ranking 18th. This stark contrast in offensive capabilities could heavily influence the game’s outcome.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and the Yankees favored with a moneyline of -150, the projections favor the Yankees, who are expected to score around 4.35 runs compared to the Rangers’ low implied team total of 3.65 runs. Given the strength of Fried against the struggling Rangers lineup, this matchup leans heavily in favor of the Yankees as they look to capitalize on their offensive prowess.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  Max Fried’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 games started (2165 rpm) has been a considerable dropoff from than his seasonal rate (2227 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Amed Rosario – Over/Under Hits
  Amed Rosario is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the New York Yankees in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .324, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Josh Jung – Over/Under Total Bases
  Josh Jung has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.1-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 88.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Texas Rangers have hit 30.4% of their balls in the air 100+ mph this year, making them the #22 squad in the game by this stat.
  Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 113 games (+11.60 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games (+10.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.50 Units / 34% ROI)