Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Tigers vs Mariners – 3/31/25

Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners

As the Detroit Tigers visit the Seattle Mariners for the first game of their series on March 31, 2025, both teams are eager to turn their seasons around. Seattle currently sits at 2-2, while Detroit struggles with a dismal record of 0-3. The Mariners are coming off a narrow victory against the Texas Rangers, winning 2-1 on March 30, while the Tigers are looking to rebound from a 7-3 loss to the New York Yankees.

Seattle will send Emerson Hancock to the mound, who is currently rated as the 439th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has had a rough start to his young career. Despite this, the projections suggest Hancock could strike out around 4.0 batters and allow an average of 2.1 earned runs today. While his strikeout and innings pitched projections are below average, he has also been known to give up a concerning 4.1 hits and 1.4 walks per outing.

On the flip side, Jackson Jobe is slated to start for Detroit. Although he, too, has faced struggles, the projections show him allowing 2.1 earned runs, which is slightly above average. Both pitchers will be tested against lineups that have not shown much offensive firepower thus far this season.

Offensively, the Mariners’ lineup ranks 22nd overall in MLB, showcasing their struggles at the plate, particularly in batting average, where they rank 29th. Conversely, the Tigers are faring even worse, placing 25th in overall offense and 23rd in batting average. This matchup could indeed see a low-scoring affair, especially with the Game Total set at just 7.5 runs.

Betting markets have made the Mariners favored at -120, reflecting a belief that they might edge out the Tigers in what is expected to be a tight contest. With both teams searching for consistency, each player’s performance could be the difference in this important early-season battle.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jackson Jobe – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Jackson Jobe to be limited today, projecting a maximum of 78 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Zach McKinstry has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .270 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .319.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The Detroit Tigers have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trey Sweeney, Spencer Torkelson, Justyn-Henry Malloy, Dillon Dingler).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Emerson Hancock’s high utilization percentage of his fastball (62.4% since the start of last season) is likely dampening his results, consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Luke Raley is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 9.1% Barrel% of the Seattle Mariners ranks them as the #4 squad in the majors since the start of last season by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 77 games (+19.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 62% ROI)