Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Rockies vs Nationals – 8/21/24

Colorado Rockies

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals take on the Colorado Rockies at Nationals Park on August 21, 2024, both teams are trying to shake off disappointing seasons. The Nationals are currently 6th in the National League East with a record of 56-70, while the Rockies sit in 5th place in the National League West with a troubling 47-79 record. The stakes are a bit lower in this matchup, but it’s crucial for both teams to build momentum.

In their most recent outing on August 20, 2024, the Nationals fell to the Rockies 3-1, showcasing their struggles at the plate. They managed just one run despite entering that game as favorites. Mitchell Parker, projected to start for Washington, has had his ups and downs; he ranks 191st among MLB starters, which highlights his inconsistency. After a rough outing against the Rockies on August 15, where he allowed 9 earned runs over 3 innings, he’ll be looking to bounce back.

On the other side, Tanner Gordon is seeking his first win after starting 6 games this season and currently holds an 0-4 record with an ERA of 7.00. While both pitchers are having challenging seasons, the projections suggest that Parker may have the edge today, especially against a Rockies offense that ranks 17th overall.

Interestingly, THE BAT X projects a higher win probability for the Nationals at 54%, despite their betting odds reflecting a less favorable assessment at -155. This discrepancy hints at potential value betting for those considering taking a chance on the Nationals, especially with their ability to exploit the Rockies’ flaws. With both teams struggling, it’ll be essential to see if the Nationals can capitalize on their home advantage and turn things around in this series.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tanner Gordon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tanner Gordon has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 8.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Ryan McMahon’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Brenton Doyle has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Mitchell Parker has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in today’s game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Luis Garcia has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Gallo, James Wood, Jose Tena).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 away games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jacob Young – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+175/-230)
  Jacob Young has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 25 games at home (+9.45 Units / 38% ROI)