Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Red Sox vs Royals – 8/05/24

Boston Red Sox

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on August 5, 2024, both teams find themselves in solid positions within their respective divisions. The Royals currently sit at 63-50, showcasing a strong season, while the Red Sox are slightly behind at 59-51, marking an above-average campaign. This matchup marks the first of a series, creating an intriguing dynamic as both squads look to gain momentum.

In their last outings, the Royals edged out the Detroit Tigers with a close 3-2 victory, while the Red Sox cruised past the Texas Rangers with a commanding 7-2 win. Notably, Kansas City’s Brady Singer is projected to start against Boston’s James Paxton, who has struggled this season, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced statistics. Singer, despite a somewhat lucky 2.88 ERA, is regarded as an above-average pitcher, holding a solid 8-6 record this year.

The Royals’ offense, ranked 12th overall, has been average at best, but they benefit from a low-strikeout lineup facing a high-walk pitcher like Paxton, who has an 11.9% walk rate. This matchup could favor the Royals, as their disciplined hitters may capitalize on Paxton’s control issues. The projections suggest the Royals might score around 5.65 runs this game, indicating confidence in their offensive capabilities.

In contrast, the Red Sox boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, led by Jarren Duran, who has performed well this season. However, facing Singer could present challenges, especially with the Royals’ bullpen ranked 17th overall, offering a moderate level of relief support.

With an implied team total of 5.23 runs for the Royals and a potent offense ready to exploit any weaknesses, Kansas City appears poised for a favorable outcome in this high-stakes game.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” today, James Paxton may not pitch more than a couple frames since he will function as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Kansas City’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Boston Red Sox in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .314, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .331 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Brady Singer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Brady Singer’s sinker utilization has dropped by 10.1% from last year to this one (51.1% to 41%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Michael Massey – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Michael Massey has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kansas City Royals batters as a unit rank among the elite in Major League Baseball this year (4th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-155/+120)
  Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+12.80 Units / 24% ROI)