Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Padres vs Cardinals – 7/25/25

San Diego Padres

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the San Diego Padres on July 25, 2025, at Busch Stadium, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a competitive National League. The Cardinals, with a record of 53-51, are having an average season, while the Padres, boasting a 55-48 record, are slightly above average. After yesterday’s matchup, which the Padres won, St. Louis will be eager to bounce back.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, but he has struggled this season, holding a 5-7 record and a 5.20 ERA. His peripherals suggest he could improve, but he faces a challenge against a Padres lineup that, despite ranking 23rd in MLB overall, has been tough to strike out. Mikolas’s low strikeout rate (16.6 K%) could be problematic against a Padres offense that ranks 3rd least in strikeouts.

On the other hand, Nick Pivetta, the Padres’ starter, is having an excellent year with a 10-2 record and a stellar 2.81 ERA. However, the projections indicate he might be due for a regression, as his xFIP of 3.50 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate. Pivetta’s ability to limit runs will be crucial, especially considering the Cardinals rank 14th in MLB in offense.

While St. Louis’s offense has shown flashes, particularly with their best hitter recently performing well, they rank 21st in home runs and stolen bases. Conversely, the Padres will look to capitalize on Mikolas’s flyball tendencies, especially given their own struggles in the power department.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup promises to be competitive. St. Louis enters as an underdog with a moneyline of +120, and while the odds suggest a tough road ahead, the Cardinals may have a chance to pull off an upset if Mikolas can outperform expectations.

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  In his previous outing, Nick Pivetta was in good form and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 85.8-mph figure last season has lowered to 83.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-170)
  Compared to the average hurler, Miles Mikolas has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an -10.2 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme flyball batters like Nolan Arenado usually hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (19.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Run Line +1.5 (-155)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.27 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+100/-130)
  Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+7.15 Units / 71% ROI)