Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Red Sox – 4/22/25

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on April 22, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in what should be a tightly contested matchup. The Red Sox, with a record of 13-11, are having an above-average season and currently sit in a solid position, while the Mariners are close behind at 12-10, also performing well. This game marks the start of a new series between these two clubs.

In their last outing, the Mariners struggled, falling 7-1 to the New York Yankees, which could weigh on their confidence heading into Fenway Park. The Red Sox, meanwhile, are riding a wave of offensive prowess, ranking 12th in MLB, with notable contributions from their best hitter, who has been on fire lately, boasting a .389 batting average and a 1.319 OPS over the past week.

On the mound, Boston will feature Brayan Bello, who is projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow around 2.6 earned runs. Bello, ranked 55th among starting pitchers, has shown flashes of potential but has struggled with allowing 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks per game. His matchup against Seattle’s Bryce Miller, who ranks 69th and has a solid 3.43 ERA, could be pivotal. Miller has faced challenges with control this season, as seen in his 11.6% walk rate, which could play into the Red Sox’s advantage given their patient approach at the plate.

With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs set for this contest, expect an offensive showcase, particularly from the Red Sox, who have a high implied team total of 4.71 runs. As the projections suggest, Boston’s balanced offensive attack and a strong bullpen ranked 7th in the league could give them the edge in this matchup.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Bryce Miller (37.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Brayan Bello has been unlucky since the start of last season, putting up a 4.49 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.03 — a 0.46 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Triston Casas is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 7th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 49% ROI)