Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Mariners vs Red Sox – 4/22/25

Seattle Mariners

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Boston Red Sox

On April 22, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park in the first game of their series. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a record of 13-11 and the Mariners close behind at 12-10. The matchup is intriguing, especially considering both teams’ recent performances. The Red Sox triumphed 4-2 in their last outing against the New York Yankees, while the Mariners came off an 8-3 victory over the Texas Rangers.

The projections for this game suggest the Red Sox offense will have an opportunity to shine against Mariners’ starter Bryce Miller, who has struggled with control, posting an 11.6% walk rate this season. Given that Boston leads MLB in walks drawn, the Mariners’ pitchers may very well be at a disadvantage yesterday’s performance for the Seattle lineup will be crucial as well, especially with power-hitting prowess in their arsenal, ranking 5th in home runs this season.

Brayan Bello and Bryce Miller will be matching up on the mound, with Bello ranked 56th among MLB starting pitchers and projected to churn through only 4.7 innings today. While he has a mediocre expected output of 2.5 earned runs, his tendencies to allow 4.9 hits and 1.8 walks per game could pose problems against a lineup that can capitalize on those opportunities. Conversely, Miller comes in with a 3.43 ERA, but his 4.24 xFIP suggests he has enjoyed some fortune this season, meaning regression could be on the horizon.

Betting markets have set the game total at a high 9.5 runs, reflecting both teams’ capacity for scoring. The Red Sox currently hold a -120 moneyline, indicating a tight contest, while the Mariners are listed at +100. It’s a matchup worth watching as the Red Sox look to leverage their offense against a pitcher who might struggle with control.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Bryce Miller (37.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Cal Raleigh is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Brayan Bello – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Brayan Bello encounters a tough challenge matching up with 6 batters in the projected lineup who bat from the opposite side in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Triston Casas is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Boston Red Sox bullpen projects as the 5th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 19% ROI)
• Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 49% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+15.50 Units / 221% ROI)