Check Out the Player Prop Odds for D-Backs vs Padres – 07/07/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks gear up for their July 7, 2024, matchup at Petco Park, the stakes remain high in this National League West clash. The Padres, sitting at 49-44, are having an above-average season and are looking to bounce back from a 7-5 loss to the Diamondbacks yesterday. Meanwhile, Arizona, with a 44-45 record, is having an average season but managed to edge out the Padres in their last outing.

San Diego will send Dylan Cease to the mound, who despite a recent rough start, is ranked as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Cease’s 4.24 ERA may not impress at first glance, but his 3.26 xFIP suggests he’s been unlucky and could be due for better outings. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters on average—a solid projection that could spell trouble for Arizona.

Opposing Cease will be Ryne Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Nelson has struggled this season with a 5.42 ERA, and his low strikeout rate (14.9 K%) could be a liability against a Padres offense that strikes out the second least in MLB. The projections have him pitching 5.4 innings and allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could be challenging against San Diego’s potent offense.

The Padres boast the 7th best offense in MLB, ranking 1st in team batting average and 8th in home runs. Their lineup, led by Jurickson Profar—who has a .314 batting average and 0.895 OPS—poses a significant threat. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 8th, and they will rely on Christian Walker, who has 22 home runs and a 0.857 OPS, to provide the firepower.

Both bullpens will play a crucial role in this game. The Padres’ bullpen ranks 9th, while the Diamondbacks’ bullpen is 17th. The edge here could favor San Diego, especially if the game is tight late.

With the Padres’ implied win probability at 60% and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projecting a 58% win probability, San Diego appears to have a slight edge. The Padres are favored with a moneyline of -165, and they will look to capitalize on their offensive strengths and Cease’s potential for a bounce-back performance.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Over his last 3 games started, Ryne Nelson has suffered a substantial decline in his fastball spin rate: from 2223 rpm over the entire season to 2168 rpm lately.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jake McCarthy’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 88.5-mph average last season has fallen to 85.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Dylan Cease has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 10.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• David Peralta – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.295) suggests that David Peralta has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .255 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The San Diego Padres (17.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.50 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)