Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Cubs vs Guardians – 8/13/24

Chicago Cubs

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on August 13, 2024, they sit firmly in contention with a solid record of 70-49, while the Cubs hover around .500 at 59-61. This Interleague matchup holds significance as it is the second game in the series, following a thrilling encounter yesterday where the Guardians edged the Cubs 9-8.

The Guardians are projected to start Matthew Boyd, who, despite being ranked as the 89th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had an inconsistent season. Boyd’s recent abbreviated outing on June 26, where he pitched just 1 inning allowing 1 earned run, raises concerns about his readiness. He is expected to struggle today, with projections indicating he may allow 4.3 hits and 1.5 walks on average, which could weigh heavily against him.

On the other hand, the Cubs will counter with Javier Assad, who, despite being one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, boasts a respectable ERA of 3.24 this season. However, his xFIP of 4.70 suggests he has been fortunate, and his projections show he may allow an alarming 5.3 hits and 1.9 walks today.

From an offensive standpoint, the Guardians’ lineup, led by their best hitter Jose Ramirez, has shown promise, ranking 15th overall in MLB. Their offense is complemented by a superb bullpen that is ranked 5th, giving them a distinct edge in close games. Meanwhile, the Cubs, despite having a decent stolen base ranking, are struggling offensively, sitting at 23rd in team batting average and home runs.

With the Guardians favored at -155 and projected to score nearly 5 runs, they seem poised to continue their positive momentum against the struggling Cubs. The projections lean favorably towards Cleveland, reinforcing their status as the team to back in this matchup.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Javier Assad – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Javier Assad’s sinker utilization has jumped by 6.4% from last year to this one (29.8% to 36.2%) .
  Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Christian Bethancour – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Christian Bethancourt is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (42% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense is that of the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Will Brennan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Will Brennan has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 18.3% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-150)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 54 games at home (+9.87 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 103 games (+6.60 Units / 6% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.90 Units / 24% ROI)