Check Out the Player Prop Odds for Braves vs Padres – 7/12/24

Atlanta Braves

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves square off at Petco Park on July 12, 2024, in the first game of their series. The Padres are having an average season with a 49-47 record, while the Braves are performing well at 51-41. Both teams are coming off close losses; the Padres were blanked 2-0 by the Mariners on July 10, and the Braves fell 1-0 to the D-Backs.

On the mound, the Padres will start right-hander Matt Waldron, who has a 5-7 record and a solid 3.61 ERA over 18 starts this season. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate and might regress. Waldron’s projected stats for this game are average across the board, with 5.5 innings pitched, 2.8 earned runs allowed, and 5.2 strikeouts.

The Braves counter with right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a 2-4 record and a 5.02 ERA in seven starts. His 3.63 xFIP indicates he’s been unlucky and could improve going forward. Schwellenbach’s projections for this game are also average, with 5.0 innings pitched, 2.4 earned runs allowed, and 3.9 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Padres rank 11th overall this season but excel in batting average (2nd) and home runs (9th). Jurickson Profar has been their standout hitter, boasting a .311 average, 14 home runs, and a .891 OPS. Recently, Jake Cronenworth has been hot, hitting .316 with a .883 OPS over the past week.

The Braves’ offense ranks 13th overall, with an 18th-ranked team batting average and 13th in home runs. Marcell Ozuna has been their top performer, hitting .298 with 24 home runs and a .943 OPS. Austin Riley has also been impressive lately, hitting .346 with a 1.164 OPS over the last week.

Both bullpens are strong, with the Padres ranked 12th and the Braves 7th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, this game is expected to be close, with the Padres having a slight edge with a 51% win probability. Betting markets reflect this, with the Padres at -115 and the Braves at -105 on the moneyline. Expect a tightly contested game with the Padres’ offense and Waldron’s luck potentially tipping the scales in their favor.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Spencer Schwellenbach has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starter.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Adam Duvall – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.306) implies that Adam Duvall has had some very poor luck this year with his .255 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Compared to their .332 overall projected rate, the .321 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Atlanta Braves projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup a good deal a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Jurickson Profar has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, bettering his 7.5% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Diego Padres hitters collectively grade out 23rd- in the league for power this year when assessing with their 91.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+11.75 Units / 54% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 64 games (+16.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-250)
  Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)