Oakland Athletics
Toronto Blue Jays
(-110/-110)-150
As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off against the Oakland Athletics on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in the midst of disappointing seasons. The Blue Jays currently sit with a record of 53-62, while the Athletics are struggling even more at 48-68. This matchup marks the first game in the series and will be played at Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays will look to capitalize on home-field advantage.
In their last outings, the Blue Jays edged out the Baltimore Orioles with a narrow 7-6 victory, showcasing a much-needed offensive surge. Meanwhile, the Athletics managed a close win against the Chicago White Sox, winning 3-2. Despite these recent victories, both teams have had their share of struggles this season, particularly on the mound.
Jose Berrios is projected to start for the Blue Jays. Although he has had an average year with a 4.11 ERA, his 5.27 xERA suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may struggle going forward. Berrios’s recent performance was shaky, as he allowed 5 earned runs in his last start. However, he faces an Athletics lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts, potentially giving him an advantage.
On the other side, Mitch Spence will take the mound for the Athletics. While he has a respectable 4.40 ERA, his 3.75 xERA indicates he could be poised for improvement. However, Spence’s low strikeout rate may be a concern against a Blue Jays offense that, despite ranking 18th overall, has shown flashes of power.
Betting lines currently favor the Blue Jays with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their slight edge. With projections suggesting the Blue Jays could score around 4.84 runs, they may have the upper hand in this matchup. Look for Toronto to build on their recent momentum as they aim to secure a crucial victory against Oakland.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Mitch Spence – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)Out of all starting pitchers, Mitch Spence’s fastball velocity of 90.4 mph is in the 8th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Brent Rooker has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year’s 94.9-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Brent Rooker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Jose Berrios – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)Jose Berrios has recorded 17.7 outs per start this year, placing in the 88th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+150/-195)With a .337 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ranked in the 100th percentile.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Ranking 10th-steepest in the game this year, Toronto Blue Jays batters collectively have recorded a 13.6° launch angle (a reliable stat to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).Explain: A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 68 games (+20.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 74 games (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- Miguel Andujar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Miguel Andujar has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)