Check Out the Match Preview: Tigers vs White Sox Game Forecast and Analysis – 6/05/2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on June 5, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Tigers are enjoying a remarkable season with a 41-22 record, while the White Sox are struggling at 19-43. After a narrow loss to the Tigers by a score of 5-4 yesterday, the White Sox will look to bounce back against a tough opponent.

Sean Burke, projected to start for the White Sox, has had a difficult season, posting a 3-6 record with a 4.20 ERA, making him one of the lower-tier pitchers in the league according to advanced metrics. His most recent outing was solid, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, but with a xFIP of 5.31, he may be due for a regression. Burke’s low strikeout rate could be a concern against a high-strikeout Tigers offense, which ranks 4th in the league.

On the other side, Casey Mize is slated to take the mound for the Tigers. With a 6-1 record and an impressive 2.82 ERA, Mize has been a reliable force for Detroit. Although his last start was abbreviated, he remains an average pitcher overall, but he faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 28th in the league in offensive production.

The projections suggest that while the White Sox may struggle to score against Mize, the Tigers’ high-powered offense should have plenty of opportunities to capitalize on Burke’s vulnerabilities. With a game total set at 8.0 runs, the betting lines favor the Tigers significantly, reflecting their strong form and the White Sox’s ongoing issues.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  Casey Mize is an extreme groundball pitcher (46% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #5 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Javier Baez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Baez are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Sean Burke.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Casey Mize – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Sean Burke – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Sean Burke has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 6.75 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.01 — a 1.26 K/9 difference.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Josh Rojas has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 5.7% rate last season has fallen off to 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-200)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 56 games (+15.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-175/+135)
  Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)