Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
(-120/+100)-165
As the Cincinnati Reds visit Oracle Park to face the San Francisco Giants on April 7, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standing in the National League. The Giants, boasting a strong 8-1 record this season, are off to a hot start, while the Reds sit at a disappointing 3-7. In their previous matchup on April 6, the Giants edged out the Reds with a 5-4 victory, further illustrating the contrasting trajectories of these two teams.
Logan Webb, projected to start for the Giants, has established himself as an elite pitcher, currently ranked 11th among MLB starters according to the leading MLB projection system. With a solid ERA of 3.00 and a win-loss record of 1-0 this season, Webb’s performance has been crucial to the Giants’ success. He pitched exceptionally well in his last start on April 1, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run, 6 strikeouts, and no walks.
On the other hand, Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds. While he has shown promise, ranking 22nd among MLB starters, his current record of 0-1 and an ERA of 2.25 indicate that he may have been somewhat fortunate so far this season. Greene’s projections suggest he will allow 2.2 earned runs today, which is decent, but he is also anticipated to struggle with walks and hits.
Despite the Giants’ offense ranking 21st overall, their bullpen is exceptional, positioned 2nd in the league. In contrast, the Reds’ offense is struggling, ranking 47th, and their bullpen is merely 21st. Given the Giants’ strong pitching and the Reds’ offensive woes, San Francisco appears to be the favored team heading into this matchup. With a low game total of 6.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the pitching duel, as Webb’s ability to limit runs could secure another victory for the Giants.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has risen 1.3 mph this season (98.9 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Gavin Lux may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 152 games (+12.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-160/+125)Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)