Cincinnati Reds
San Francisco Giants
(+100/-120)-150
On April 7, 2025, the Cincinnati Reds will take on the San Francisco Giants in what marks the first game of their series at Oracle Park. The Giants are currently riding high with an impressive 8-1 record this season, while the Reds are struggling at 3-7, making this matchup particularly crucial for both teams.
The Giants will send Logan Webb to the mound, a right-hander who’s projected to continue his strong early-season form. Webb, ranked the 11th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, boasts a solid Win/Loss record of 1-0 and an excellent ERA of 3.00. His projections indicate he will pitch around 6.5 innings while allowing only 2.0 earned runs today—a testament to his elite performance thus far.
Conversely, the Reds will counter with Hunter Greene, another right-handed pitcher, who is currently ranked 22nd in MLB. Despite showing promise with a 2.25 ERA, Greene’s Win/Loss record of 0-1 raises questions about his consistency, especially since his xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression.
The Giants’ offense, while currently 23rd in MLB rankings, has managed to deliver some key hits, but they face a Reds team whose offense is struggling even more, ranking 45th. This disparity may play a pivotal role in the game.
With the Giants’ bullpen ranked 2nd overall, they hold a significant advantage late in the game. As betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, the Giants are projected to score a modest 3.74 runs, while the Reds’ low implied team total of 3.26 runs paints a grim picture for their offense. Given the stakes and the respective forms of both teams, this matchup shapes up to be a critical one for the Giants as they aim to maintain momentum early in the season.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Hunter Greene – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has risen 1.3 mph this season (98.9 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Jake Fraley will probably have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 7.7 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Extreme groundball hitters like Wilmer Flores generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Hunter Greene.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Logan Webb – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-150/+115)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 152 games (+12.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- Jose Trevino – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)Jose Trevino has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 24% ROI)