Check Out the Match Preview: Reds vs Brewers Game Forecast and Analysis – 8/09/2024

Cincinnati Reds

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face off against the Cincinnati Reds on August 9, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League Central. The Brewers boast a solid record of 65-49, while the Reds sit at 56-59, highlighting the Brewers’ strong season. The stakes are high as this matchup marks the first game in their series, and both teams come off impressive wins: the Brewers defeated the Braves 16-7, while the Reds topped the Marlins 10-4.

Milwaukee will send right-hander Aaron Civale to the mound. Although Civale’s season has been underwhelming with a 2-8 record and a 5.14 ERA, the projections suggest he may see better results moving forward due to his 4.24 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch 5.3 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 4.8 hits and 1.5 walks per outing could be a concern against a Reds offense that, despite being average overall, features some dangerous hitters.

Carson Spiers, also a right-hander, will take the mound for Cincinnati. Spiers has had a decent season with a 3.59 ERA but has struggled with consistency, as reflected in his status as one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to advanced metrics. He projects to pitch just 4.9 innings while allowing 2.8 earned runs, which could be problematic against a Brewers offense rated 8th best in MLB, particularly when they rank 5th in batting average.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, views the Brewers as significant favorites, projecting them to score 5.03 runs on average while giving the Reds an average projection of 4.26 runs. With the Brewers’ offensive depth and Civale’s potential for improvement, they look poised to capitalize on their current momentum in this pivotal matchup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  With a 1.13 difference between Carson Spiers’s 3.59 ERA and his 4.72 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to see worse results in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Jake Fraley is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cincinnati Reds’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the league.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-155)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Sal Frelick has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.7-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 47 games at home (+11.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 59 of their last 104 games (+7.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.85 Units / 33% ROI)