Boston Red Sox
Baltimore Orioles
(-110/-110)-145
As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on March 31, 2025, both teams enter the matchup with contrasting early season records. The Orioles sit at 2-2, showcasing a solid offense ranked 5th in MLB, while the Red Sox struggle at 1-3, grappling with inconsistent performance at the plate. This game marks the first in a series between the two clubs, heightening the intensity of the rivalry.
In their last outings, the Orioles’ best hitter has been on a tear, recording 5 hits and 5 runs in just 4 games, while posting a robust .313 batting average and a 1.139 OPS. Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s top performer has also been productive, with 7 hits and 5 runs, but his .700 batting average and 2.300 OPS indicate a significant disparity in effectiveness.
On the mound, Cade Povich is projected to start for the Orioles. Despite being ranked the 213th best starting pitcher in MLB, Povich’s numbers suggest he can at least limit damage, projecting to allow 2.5 earned runs over an average of 4.7 innings pitched. Conversely, Sean Newcomb, also a left-handed pitcher for the Red Sox, has faced struggles of his own, projecting to pitch just 3.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs.
The Orioles’ bullpen ranks 9th in MLB, providing a strong support system that could prove crucial in a high-scoring game, as indicated by the current Game Total of 9.5 runs. The Orioles are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting their offensive potential against a Red Sox team that has yet to find its rhythm this season. With the Orioles’ powerful lineup and a favorable matchup, they appear poised to capitalize on their home field advantage.
Boston Red Sox Insights
- Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (+125)Out of every team playing today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Rafael Devers has hit 48% of his balls in the air 100 mph or harder since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile.Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.
- Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Jarren Duran has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.4%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Baltimore Orioles Insights
- Cade Povich – Over/Under Pitching OutsRecording 14.9 outs per game per started since the start of last season on average, Cade Povich falls in the 21st percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Jackson Holliday is an extreme groundball batter and faces the strong infield defense of Boston (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Baltimore Orioles have 4 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O’Neill, Heston Kjerstad, Ramon Laureano, Jackson Holliday).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 67 of their last 123 games (+17.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Rafael Devers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+15.20 Units / 59% ROI)