Check Out the Match Preview: Rangers vs Orioles Game Forecast and Analysis – 6/25/2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Texas Rangers on June 25, 2025, both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, albeit in different ways. The Orioles, with a record of 34-45, are struggling this season, while the Rangers sit a bit better at 39-41, showcasing an average performance. In their last outing, both teams faced off on June 24, where the Orioles narrowly lost 6-5 to the Rangers.

The matchup features Baltimore’s Brandon Young, projected to start, against Texas’ elite pitcher Jacob deGrom. Young has had a rocky season, recording a 0-1 record with a troubling 6.23 ERA. His low strikeout rate of 4.0 K/9 innings and high walk rate of 19.1% could be a concern against a Texas offense that has struggled overall but is also impatient at the plate. Meanwhile, deGrom brings a far superior profile, with a 7-2 record and a stellar 2.24 ERA, making him the 11th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats.

While the Orioles have a slightly better offensive ranking at 21st in MLB, their inability to convert runs has been evident. They rank 23rd in team batting average but 11th in home runs, showing their potential to hit for power. Conversely, the Rangers’ offense ranks 28th overall and in batting average, which has been a significant weakness this season.

Despite the initial odds favoring the Rangers, the projections indicate that Young may have some luck on his side against a low-walk offense. With the Game Total set at 9.0 runs, bettors should explore the potential for an unexpected performance from the Orioles, who are looking to bounce back and capitalize on any missteps from Texas.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – -0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (-115)
  Jacob deGrom is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Jordan Westburg – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-220/+165)
  Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 63 games (+18.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Josh Jung has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)