Check Out the Match Preview: Rangers vs Orioles Game Forecast and Analysis – 6/25/2025

Texas Rangers

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Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles will host the Texas Rangers on June 25, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup as both teams look to improve their standings. The Orioles, currently sitting at 34-45, are struggling this season, while the Rangers hold a slightly better record at 39-41. The stakes are high in this series, with the Rangers having won the previous game by a narrow 6-5 margin.

Brandon Young, projected to start for the Orioles, has had a rough go this season, boasting a 0-1 record and an alarming ERA of 6.23. His last outing was uneventful, as he allowed 3 earned runs over 5 innings. Young’s high walk rate of 19.1% could be problematic against the Rangers’ low-walk offense, but they may struggle to exploit his control issues. The projections indicate he’ll pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out only 4 batters on average, which is below-average for a starter.

On the other side, Jacob deGrom, an elite pitcher ranked 11th among MLB starters, is having a stellar season with a 7-2 record and a superb 2.24 ERA. His last start was impressive, as he pitched 6 innings with just 2 earned runs and 7 strikeouts. DeGrom’s ability to limit walks (5.3% this year) may give him an advantage against an impatient Orioles offense that ranks 22nd in MLB.

With the Orioles’ offense ranked 22nd overall and the Rangers’ at 28th, runs may be hard to come by. However, the Orioles surprisingly rank 11th in home runs, which could provide them a spark. Despite being underdogs with a low implied team total of 3.65 runs, they might find a way to capitalize on any mistakes made by deGrom. This game will be pivotal as both teams look to turn their seasons around.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Jacob deGrom is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #4 HR venue in the majors today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Extreme groundball bats like Marcus Semien are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Tomoyuki Sugano.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be best to expect improved performance for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Gary Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
  Gary Sanchez is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Baltimore’s 89.8-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the league: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 63 games (+18.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Josh Jung has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)