San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants
(-110/-110)+135
The San Diego Padres will visit Oracle Park to face the San Francisco Giants on August 13, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Giants, with a record of 59-61, are having an average season and currently rank 24th in offense across MLB, which underscores their struggle at the plate. Meanwhile, the Padres, boasting a record of 68-52, have performed well this season but are coming off a tough loss against the Giants in the previous game, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.
Kai-Wei Teng is set to take the mound for the Giants, bringing a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.40. His peripheral stats indicate that he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.36 SIERA suggests potential for improvement. However, Teng projects to pitch just 4.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, which could put pressure on a Giants bullpen ranked 17th in MLB.
On the other hand, Nick Pivetta, projected to start for the Padres, is having an excellent season with an 11-4 record and a stellar 2.94 ERA. Pivetta’s control has been impressive, and he is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings today, projecting to allow 2.5 earned runs. This matchup poses a challenge for the Giants, as their hitters may struggle against Pivetta’s low walk rate, minimizing their ability to capitalize on any patience at the plate.
Given the current form of both teams and the overall dynamics of the matchup, the Padres are favored, but the Giants may find some level of hope given their recent victory and Teng’s potential for positive regression.
San Diego Padres Insights
- San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #26 HR venue in MLB in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 87.9-mph figure last season has dropped to 85.6-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- San Diego Padres – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen grades out as the best among all MLB teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Typically, hitters like Willy Adames who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Nick Pivetta.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Heliot Ramos has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games at home (+16.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- San Diego Padres – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-205)Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)