Check Out the Match Preview: Orioles vs Blue Jays Game Forecast and Analysis – 9/13/2025

Baltimore Orioles

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Baltimore Orioles visit the Toronto Blue Jays for the second game of their series on September 13, 2025, both teams are at different points in the standings. The Blue Jays, with an impressive record of 85-62, are firmly in contention for the playoffs, showcasing a powerful offense ranked 2nd in MLB. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 69-78, struggling and ranked 21st overall.

In their previous matchup, the Blue Jays showcased their strength with a commanding victory, further solidifying their position as playoff contenders. Max Scherzer, projected to start for Toronto, is having an above-average season despite a 5-3 record and an ERA of 4.36. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Scherzer as the 73rd best starting pitcher, making him a solid choice against the Orioles’ struggling lineup.

Tomoyuki Sugano, starting for Baltimore, carries a 10-8 record with a slightly better ERA of 4.51. However, his projections reveal he may not perform as well as his stats suggest, as he is one of the lowest-rated pitchers in MLB. Sugano’s low strikeout rate of 15.5 K% could be a significant disadvantage against a Blue Jays offense that excels at making contact, as they have the lowest strikeout percentage in the league.

The Blue Jays are favored in today’s matchup with a high implied team total of 4.75 runs, while the Orioles sit at a lower projection of 3.75 runs. Given the Blue Jays’ offensive potency, paired with Scherzer’s pitching prowess, they present a strong case for bettors looking to capitalize on this game. The projections suggest that Scherzer’s ability to limit walks, combined with a powerful lineup, could spell trouble for the Orioles as they aim to turn their season around.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tomoyuki Sugano to throw 84 pitches today (11th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Dylan Beavers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Dylan Beavers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Jackson Holliday hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Max Scherzer – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Daulton Varsho has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last season’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The underlying talent of the Toronto Blue Jays projected batting order today (.323 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal weaker than their .334 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Toronto Blue Jays – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 80 of their last 139 games (+18.90 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 130 games (+23.38 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jackson Holliday – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-110/-120)
  Jackson Holliday has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 28% ROI)