Check Out the Match Preview: Mariners vs Padres Game Forecast and Analysis – (7/10/2024

Seattle Mariners

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San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners are set to face off on July 10, 2024, at Petco Park in an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Padres holding a 49-45 record and the Mariners slightly better at 49-43. The Padres, currently favored with a moneyline of -140, have a projected win probability of 56% for this game.

The Padres will send Michael King to the mound, who has been an effective starter this season with a 7-5 record and a solid 3.51 ERA###101. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, King ranks as the 31st best starting pitcher this year. King is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 6.8 batters, which aligns well against a Mariners offense that ranks 1st in strikeouts. This could provide an advantage for the Padres, as King’s strength matches the Mariners’ weakness.

On the other side, Bryce Miller will start for the Mariners. Miller has a 6-7 record with a respectable 3.84 ERA###102. However, the projections suggest an average performance, with Miller expected to pitch 5.3 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs. His strikeout projection of 3.9 is less impressive, especially against a Padres offense that ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average and 8th in home runs.

The Padres’ offensive prowess extends beyond just batting average and power. Ranked 9th overall in offense, their lineup will look to capitalize on Miller’s vulnerabilities. The Mariners, on the other hand, struggle offensively, ranking 28th overall and dead last in batting average.

Bullpen depth could also play a crucial role. The Padres’ bullpen is ranked 9th, suggesting reliability in close games. Conversely, the Mariners’ bullpen ranks 27th, which could be a significant liability, especially against a potent Padres lineup.

In their previous game, the Padres’ Jurickson Profar has been on fire, boasting a .389 batting average and 1.421 OPS over the last week. Meanwhile, Julio Rodriguez has been the standout for the Mariners, hitting .333 with a 1.051 OPS in the same span.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Bryce Miller’s 2479-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a substantial 112-rpm decrease from last year’s 2591-rpm rate.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.300) suggests that Jorge Polanco has had some very poor luck this year with his .262 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners bullpen grades out as the 4th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Michael King – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Michael King has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 4.6 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  In the past two weeks, Jake Cronenworth’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.3% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.40 Units / 33% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 18 away games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+10.20 Units / 18% ROI)