Check Out the Match Preview: Blue Jays vs Angels Game Forecast and Analysis – 8/13/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Los Angeles Angels

As the Los Angeles Angels and the Toronto Blue Jays meet for the second game of their series at Angel Stadium on August 13, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their disappointing seasons. The Angels sit at 52-67, while the Blue Jays are slightly better at 55-64. Following yesterday’s matchup, where the Blue Jays edged out the Angels 4-2, both teams are eager to turn the tide.

On the mound, the Angels will send Carson Fulmer to the hill. Despite a decent ERA of 3.74, Fulmer ranks as the 298th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has struggled this season. His projections suggest he will pitch about 4.6 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs, which raises concerns about his effectiveness. Conversely, Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, who ranks 87th among MLB starters, is projected to pitch 5.7 innings with an average of 2.9 earned runs allowed. Gausman’s recent performance has been solid, highlighted by a strong showing in his last start, where he went 8 innings with only 2 earned runs.

Offensively, the Angels have the 24th best lineup in MLB, while the Blue Jays are ranked 21st. However, the Angels’ best hitter, Zach Neto, has been hot, boasting a .323 batting average and 1.110 OPS over the last week, making him a player to watch. Meanwhile, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads the Blue Jays with a .321 batting average and 0.938 OPS, also showcasing his recent prowess.

The leading MLB projection system suggests the Blue Jays have a slight edge in this matchup, with projections indicating they will score around 5.20 runs compared to the Angels’ 4.64. With both teams struggling but showing flashes of talent, this game promises to be competitive, making for an intriguing betting opportunity.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Kevin Gausman struggled when it came to striking batters out in his previous GS and notched 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• George Springer – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  George Springer has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .295 mark is quite a bit lower than his .351 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Toronto’s 88-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #28 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Carson Fulmer – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Carson Fulmer has been granted a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -16.1 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Anthony Rendon – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Anthony Rendon is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Logan O’Hoppe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Logan O’Hoppe pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – Run Line +1.5 (-160)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Run Line in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+10.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 46 games (+19.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+190/-255)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)