Check Out the Marlins vs Nationals Betting Guide and Expert Picks – 9/12/2024

Miami Marlins

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals prepare to host the Miami Marlins on September 12, 2024, both teams are limping through a challenging season. The Nationals sit at 65-80, while the Marlins are struggling even more at 54-92. This matchup, the first in their series, comes during a time when neither team is vying for a postseason berth, though they are eager to finish strong.

In their last outing, the Nationals fell short against the Philadelphia Phillies, extending their losing streak. On the other hand, Miami has also faced difficulties recently, further solidifying their position as one of the weakest teams this year.

Mitchell Parker is projected to take the mound for Washington. Despite being ranked as the 158th best starting pitcher in MLB, he has shown signs of inconsistency with a 7-9 record and a 4.43 ERA, coupled with a below-average strikeout rate of 4.6 strikeouts per game. However, the projections suggest that his 3.89 FIP indicates he may have been unlucky, hinting at potential improvement.

Darren McCaughan counters for Miami, and his numbers are even more concerning. With a 7.40 ERA and a low strikeout percentage, he has struggled extensively on the mound and ranks among the worst pitchers in the league.

While the Nationals’ offense ranks 22nd overall, they have performed decently in batting average (14th) but are 29th in home runs, limiting their power potential. On the flip side, the Marlins rank 29th in overall offense and home runs, compounding their struggles. Given the Nationals’ status as a significant betting favorite and the projections favoring them with an implied team total of 5.09 runs, they appear poised to take advantage of Miami’s weaknesses and secure a much-needed victory.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cristian Pache – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Cristian Pache tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Mitchell Parker.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Mitchell Parker – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Because flyball batters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Mitchell Parker and his 34.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s matchup matching up with 0 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Gallo has big-time HR ability (99th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (37.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Darren McCaughan is a pitch-to-contact type (1st percentile K%) — great news for Gallo.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Joey Gallo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Gallo pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.05 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 79 of their last 146 games (+12.25 Units / 8% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+640/-1300)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+8.40 Units / 120% ROI)