Seattle Mariners
Chicago White Sox
(-120/+100)+110
The Chicago White Sox, buried at the bottom of the American League standings with a 27-80 record, will host the Seattle Mariners at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 28, 2024. The Mariners, sitting at 55-51, are having a significantly better season and will look to continue their dominance after winning last night’s game 6-3.
Garrett Crochet, one of the few bright spots for the struggling White Sox, is set to take the mound. Ranked as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Crochet boasts a stellar 3.07 ERA, though his 2.36 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. Despite having a 6-7 Win/Loss record, Crochet’s high strikeout rate of 35.4% could exploit the Mariners’ tendency to strike out—the most in MLB.
On the other side, Bryce Miller will be pitching for the Mariners. Miller, the 90th best starting pitcher, has been solid with a 3.41 ERA this season. His recent outing on July 22 saw him go 7 innings without allowing an earned run, demonstrating his capability to dominate on the mound. However, his 3.94 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate this season and could be due for some regression.
Offensively, both teams have struggled. The White Sox rank 30th in MLB in team batting average and 28th in team home runs, making it a challenge for them to capitalize on Miller’s high fly-ball rate. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense isn’t much better, ranking 30th in batting average despite being 14th in home runs.
One area where the Mariners have an edge is in the bullpen, ranked 14th, compared to the White Sox’s bullpen, which is dead last at 30th. This could be pivotal in a close game where late-inning performance matters.
Betting markets and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both foresee a closely contested game. The White Sox’s current moneyline is set at +110, implying a 46% win probability, while the Mariners are at -130 with a 54% implied win probability. THE BAT X projects the Mariners’ win probability slightly higher at 53%, giving them a slight edge in this matchup.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Bryce Miller has relied on his four-seam fastball 14.4% less often this year (44.1%) than he did last year (58.5%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Seattle Mariners bats as a unit have been among the best in the league this year (5th-) as far as their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)Garrett Crochet’s 96.3-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 95th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)Luis Robert has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.7-mph to 95.8-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Paul DeJong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Paul DeJong pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 40 away games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+170/-225)Eloy Jimenez has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)