Check Out the Live Stream Details for Red Sox vs Tigers – Sunday, September 01, 2024

Boston Red Sox

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Detroit Tigers

As the Detroit Tigers prepare to host the Boston Red Sox on September 1, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for the postseason, albeit with average records of 69-68 and 70-66, respectively. The Tigers are coming off a narrow victory against the Red Sox yesterday, winning 2-1, which could provide a psychological edge heading into this matchup.

On the mound, the Tigers will send Beau Brieske, who has struggled recently, projecting to pitch only 1.2 innings with an average of 0.6 earned runs allowed. His last outing was abbreviated, lasting just one inning with 2 earned runs. In contrast, the Red Sox will counter with Cooper Criswell, who has had his own challenges this season. While his ERA stands at a respectable 4.34, recent projections show he’s expected to allow 3.0 earned runs over 4.7 innings, which could spell trouble for Boston.

The matchup presents a stark contrast in offensive capabilities. The Red Sox boast the 4th best offense in MLB, highlighted by Jarren Duran’s impressive stats, including 21 home runs and a .295 batting average this season. Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 23rd in offense, struggling to produce runs consistently.

Interestingly, advanced projections suggest that the Tigers could score around 5.13 runs in this game, which is significantly higher than their current implied team total of 4.64 runs. This discrepancy hints at potential value for bettors looking at the Tigers, especially given their recent form against the Red Sox. With the Game Total set at a high 9.5 runs, fans can expect an engaging contest as both teams vie for a crucial win.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Cooper Criswell – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  As a result of his large platoon split, Cooper Criswell will be at a disadvantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected batting order of opposing handedness today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Connor Wong – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Connor Wong is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Boston Red Sox bats collectively have been among the best in MLB this year (6th-) in regard to their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  In today’s matchup, Zach McKinstry is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 60 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 49 away games (+13.45 Units / 25% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-250)
  Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 34 games (+12.45 Units / 37% ROI)