Check Out the Cubs vs Guardians Best Bets and Expert Picks – Wednesday August 14, 2024

Chicago Cubs

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Chicago Cubs on August 14, 2024, at Progressive Field, the stakes are high for both teams, particularly for the Guardians, who have been enjoying a strong season with a record of 71-49. The Guardians currently sit in a favorable position, looking to extend their lead in the wild card race, while the Cubs, at 59-62, are in search of consistency and a chance to climb back into contention.

In their last matchup on August 13, the Guardians edged out the Cubs with a tight 2-1 victory, showcasing their ability to capitalize on close opportunities. The Guardians will send Alex Cobb to the mound, who has struggled this season with a 7.71 ERA despite being ranked as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, which, while average, raises concerns given his recent form.

On the other side, the Cubs will counter with Jameson Taillon, who boasts a solid 3.50 ERA. However, his performance has been inconsistent, and projections indicate he could allow an average of 2.7 earned runs over 5.4 innings. Taillon’s low strikeout rate might benefit the Guardians, who rank 5th in the league for fewest strikeouts.

The Guardians’ offense, ranked 14th overall, is buoyed by the impressive play of Jose Ramirez, who has been a key contributor this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense has struggled, particularly in terms of batting average, ranking 23rd in MLB.

With the Guardians showing a stronger overall performance and a solid bullpen ranked 5th, they are projected to come out on top in this contest, despite the odds suggesting a closer matchup. The Guardians are favored to score around 4.49 runs, while the Cubs are projected for approximately 4.04 runs, making this an intriguing game for bettors and fans alike.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.4 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Alex Cobb – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Alex Cobb must realize this, because he has gone to his secondary pitches a lot since the start of last season: 59.9% of the time, placing in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan’s true offensive skill to be a .312, suggesting that he has had some very good luck this year given the .062 disparity between that mark and his actual .374 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.8% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-130)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 112 games (+10.02 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 121 games (+5.80 Units / 4% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)