Kansas City Royals
New York Yankees
(-105/-115)-145
As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Kansas City Royals on September 11, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of a competitive season. The Yankees, currently holding a record of 83-62, are positioned well for a playoff run, while the Royals, at 80-66, are enjoying an above-average season. This matchup marks the third game in the series, with the Yankees looking to bounce back after a disappointing 5-0 loss to the Royals just yesterday.
Luis Gil is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, boasting a solid Win/Loss record of 13-6 and a commendable ERA of 3.24 this season. However, his 4.26 xFIP suggests he may have enjoyed some good fortune, indicating a potential for regression. Gil’s high strikeout rate of 27.7% could be a crucial factor against a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB. This could create an intriguing dynamic, as Gil will need to navigate a lineup that excels at making contact.
On the other side, Cole Ragans will start for the Royals. Ragans has been impressive this year, ranking 14th among MLB starters with an ERA of 3.33. He also pitched well in his last outing, going six innings with no earned runs. However, both pitchers are projected to allow a similar number of earned runs today, with Gil at 2.3 and Ragans at 2.6.
The Yankees’ offense ranks 2nd in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, particularly with Aaron Judge leading the charge. The projections indicate that the Yankees are expected to score around 4.81 runs, which aligns with their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -150. With their powerful lineup and the advantage of playing at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees are poised to reclaim momentum in this crucial series.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Cole Ragans projects as the 10th-best starter in the game currently when assessing his strikeout ability, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
New York Yankees Insights
- New York Yankees – Moneyline (-145)Out of every team in action today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Yankees.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 96 games (+19.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 away games (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
- Austin Wells – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+190/-250)Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+13.85 Units / 60% ROI)