Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Tigers vs Astros – 10/01/24

Detroit Tigers

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Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros gear up to face the Detroit Tigers on October 1, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League Wild Card matchup. The Astros, who clinched a playoff spot, are looking to leverage their home-field advantage at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, the Tigers, coming off a loss to the White Sox, aim to bounce back and keep their postseason dreams alive.

Houston’s Framber Valdez will take the mound, bringing with him an impressive 15-7 record and a stellar 2.91 ERA this season. Despite his strong numbers, his 3.41 SIERA suggests some luck has been at play. On the flip side, Detroit’s Tarik Skubal boasts an even more remarkable 18-4 record with a 2.39 ERA, ranking him as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, like Valdez, his SIERA (2.89) indicates he might be due for regression.

Offensively, the Astros have a significant edge, ranking 7th overall in offense and 3rd in batting average. This could pose a challenge for Skubal, especially since Houston is the 3rd hardest team to strike out in MLB. Yordan Alvarez, Houston’s standout hitter, will look to capitalize on this matchup with his .308 batting average and .959 OPS.

The Tigers, with a 25th-ranked offense, will need Riley Greene to lead the charge. Greene’s .262 batting average and .827 OPS make him a key player in Detroit’s lineup. Despite the Tigers’ offensive struggles, Parker Meadows has been a bright spot recently, hitting .364 over the past week.

While the Astros hold a betting edge with a -140 moneyline, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives them a 59% chance to win. Both teams have low implied team totals, indicating a potentially low-scoring affair. With elite pitching on both sides, this Wild Card clash promises to be a tightly contested battle.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Tarik Skubal’s fastball velocity has increased 1.2 mph this year (96.2 mph) over where it was last season (95 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+115)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Projected catcher Jake Rogers grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (59% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Minute Maid Park — the #8 HR venue in the league — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Yordan Alvarez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 93.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games (+16.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 34 away games (+19.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+165/-215)
  Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 45 games (+15.60 Units / 33% ROI)